This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES-M2) are trading higher by 6.50 points to 1307.75 per contract. The European markets are trading flat to higher as yields on Spanish and Italian debt have retreated. Is this the calm before the storm? Nearly everyday, the major stock indexes start the trading day higher and immediately fade after the opening bell rings at the new York Stock Exchange. Traders should and must continue to follow the U.S. Dollar Index very closely. As you probably know by now, the major stock market indexes around the world will usually trade inverse to U.S. Dollar Index. Today, the U.S. Dollar Index has declined sharply from the overnight highs, however, it is only down by 0.04 cents to $81.49 per contract. Any bounce in the U.S. Dollar Index will likely cause these markets to deflate lower. Essentially, every trade is a trade on the dollar.
Last night, most of the leading Asian stock markets sold off. This tells us that if the U.S. markets are weak today the Asian ADR’s will likely come under selling pressure. Some leading Asian ADR’s that could be volatile include SINA Corporation (USA)(NASDAQ:SINA), Baidu.com, Inc. (ADR) (NASDAQ:BIDU), Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE:SNE), and the iShares MSCI Japan Index (ETF) (NYSEARCA:EWJ).