Harping on the Fed Index

1. Likely fall in nominal GDP between 2008 and 2009: 1%

Last time NGDP fell that rapidly: 1937-38

2. Fall in monetary base during first half of 2009: 3.1%

Last time monetary base fell that fast in first half (excluding post-Y2K fall): 1938

3. Current yield on 3 month T-bills: 0.18%

Yield on 3 month T-bills on January 1st, 1938: 0.10%

4. Date Fed first instituted a policy of paying banks to hoard reserves: October 2008.

Previous time Fed instituted a policy which increased the demand for reserves: 1937

5. Increase in the minimum wage since 2007: 41% ($5.15 to $7.25)

Largest percentage increase in the minimum wage: Infinity, November 1938 ($0 to $0.25)

6. Percentage of US economists who want to see the minimum wage completely eliminated: 47%

Voting pattern of US economists: 3 to 1 Democratic

7. Change in the PPI between June 2008 and June 2009: -13.2%

Change in the PPI between June 1937 and June 1938: -10.0%

8. Change in the DJIA between August 31, 2008 and November 20, 2008: -34.6%

Change in the DJIA between August 31, 1937 and November 20, 1937: -33.4%

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