It’s the Season for Optimism

This is the time of year when we get to read all the stories about how the economy is poised to do better in the coming year. There have been a couple of these today, and I expect more will follow.

Better than what? Yes, signs are pointing in the right direction, but we are still in a deep, deep hole and the signs also point to a long, long road to recovery. The economy still needs help, job creation in particular, but, unfortunately, these stories create an elevated sense of optimism about the coming year. This lets policymakers off the hook and helps them avoid the difficulties they would face if they proposed more aggressive policy actions.

Doing better is not the same as doing well enough, and policymakers have no reason to relax yet. I hope the people writing these stories will make that clear.

Maybe we’ll be surprised by the strength of job creation in the coming year, I certainly hope so, but we shouldn’t count on it.

About Mark Thoma 243 Articles

Affiliation: University of Oregon

Mark Thoma is a member of the Economics Department at the University of Oregon. He joined the UO faculty in 1987 and served as head of the Economics Department for five years. His research examines the effects that changes in monetary policy have on inflation, output, unemployment, interest rates and other macroeconomic variables with a focus on asymmetries in the response of these variables to policy changes, and on changes in the relationship between policy and the economy over time. He has also conducted research in other areas such as the relationship between the political party in power, and macroeconomic outcomes and using macroeconomic tools to predict transportation flows. He received his doctorate from Washington State University.

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