A Simple Reality

Governments and central banks in many countries have undertaken all sorts of policies and programs in an effort to stimulate both narrow and broad slices of the economy in terms of trying to help consumers and businesses. Some policies have also targeted asset prices.

There was certainly hope for these programs as they came out, and continue to come out but of course they have so far ranged from coming up short, to totally ineffective to having the opposite of the intended result occur. There are going to continue to be programs and policies foisted upon the markets and economy in an attempt to “fix it” but the simple reality is that these are likely to continue to fall short, be totally ineffective or have the opposite of the intended result.

It is certainly possible that some policy somewhere could actually help but I don’t think it is prudent to build an investment thesis that relies on a government enacting an effective policy. This has been a slow moving train wreck that I’ve been writing about for a long time and it will continue to be a slow moving train wreck which creates the challenge for investors of figuring how to invest against a slow deterioration.

Many of the posts here have been about my idea on how to do this (select foreign countries and certain narrow themes) but of course there can be countless ways to have success as the US, Big Western Europe and Japan continue to flounder. If you have been reading this site for a while then you probably have already developed and implemented a couple of ideas along these lines.

I view the entire dilemma as a challenge that needs to be met with an individual solution (hopefully well reasoned) that makes sense for you. One type of solution might be along the lines that I write about (this might be extreme depending on how much time you can and are willing to put in), another type could be putting it all in the TrendPilot ETNs (this would be extreme for obvious reasons) that take defensive action for you or any other strategy you can be comfortable with.

Find your own solution is also true for a retirement strategy and more general life choices we make. In that light it makes no sense to lament how fouled up and unfair things are, instead make more productive use of your time by figuring out the right way for you to work around a new and simple reality.

About Roger Nusbaum 169 Articles

Roger Nusbaum is an Arizona-based financial advisor who builds and manages client portfolios using a mix of individual stocks and ETFs. Roger writes a popular blog, which focuses on risk management, foreign stocks, exchange traded funds, options etc.

Roger has been recognized by many in the investment management industry for his expertise in portfolio management. Roger has been regularly interviewed by the financial press, trade journals, and television news shows. He has also had numerous technical articles published and has been quoted in a number of professional trade journals, newspapers, and consumer finance magazines. He appears frequently on CNBC Asia as a market commentator.

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