What Is The Smart Money Thinking and Doing?

I chuckle as I write the title for this commentary for the very simple reason that it is a line heard so often on the sales and trading desks on Wall Street. We can get a sample of “what the smart money is thinking and doing” from a very recent Bloomberg Poll. Be mindful that those polled represent a global random sampling of 1,263 Bloomberg subscribers.

Would you like to know what they think of the following?

1. Which national markets will offer investors the BEST and WORST opportunities over the next year?

2. What asset class will offer the BEST and WORST RETURNS over the next year? 

3. What do those polled think of their regional economy, the U.S. economy, and the global economy?

4. Where will the U.S. dollar stand relative to the Euro three months from now?

5. How do these global investors intend on shifting their exposures across asset classes over the next six months? (I find this question to be particular interesting. The contrarian in me makes me want to take the opposite side of the extremes reflected by those polled.)

6. How will major market indices and specific commodities perform over the next six months?

7. What do those polled think of Goldman Sachs in terms of its reputation and its stock valuation?

8. What about Japan in terms of its ability to rebound from the earthquake of March 11th and its ability to escape deflation?

9. What about China and the status of its currency, the Chinese yuan?

10. How do those polled view the major Wall Street banks? Which single bank received an overall unfavorable rating? Which bank is viewed most favorably?

I like this poll for a number of reasons, including the fact that it is global in nature, it is representative of those who follow the markets, and it is a random sampling of over 300,000 individuals. The margin of error is less than 3%.

About Larry Doyle 522 Articles

Larry Doyle embarked on his Wall Street career in 1983 as a mortgage-backed securities trader for The First Boston Corporation. He was involved in the growth and development of the secondary mortgage market from its near infancy.

After close to 7 years at First Boston, Larry joined Bear Stearns in early 1990 as a mortgage trader. In 1993, Larry was named a Senior Managing Director at the firm. He left Bear to join Union Bank of Switzerland in late 1996 as Head of Mortgage Trading.

In 1998, after 15 years of trading and precipitated by Swiss Bank’s takeover of UBS, Larry moved from trading to sales as a senior salesperson at Bank of America. His move into sales led him to the role as National Sales Manager for Securitized Products at JP Morgan Chase in 2000. He was integrally involved in developing the department, hiring 40 salespeople, and generating $300 million in sales revenue. He left JP Morgan in 2006.

Throughout his career, Larry eagerly engaged clients and colleagues. He has mentored dozens of junior colleagues, recruited at a number of colleges and universities, and interviewed hundreds. He has also had extensive public speaking experience. Additionally, Larry served as Chair of the Mortgage Trading Committee for the Public Securities Association (PSA) in the mid-90s.

Larry graduated Cum Laude, Phi Beta Kappa in 1983 from the College of the Holy Cross.

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