Bernanke Rally, Can It Last?

Every trader that I know is talking about the FOMC meeting tomorrow. This is when the Federal Reserve Bank Chairman, Ben Bernanke, is scheduled to give his first ever press conference after an interest rate decision. The market this afternoon is betting that Helicopter Ben is going to keep the money pump flowing. As we all know the Fed’s quantitative easing program(U.S. Treasury purchases) is due to end sometime in June 2011. Can the stock market stand on it’s own two feet without the constant cash reverses being created by the Fed on a daily basis? Chairman Bernanke is getting to live out his college thesis that states if the stock market goes up people will feel better and everything will be better. It sounds like Coue’s rule, this is where you look in the mirror and say, “every day and in every way I am getting better and better.” Eventually, you are supposed to feel better. Meanwhile, as Chairman Bernanke gets to live out his college dream the U.S. Dollar Index seems to be declining into the abyss.

What can Chairman Bernanke say about the U.S. Dollar Index? After all the U.S. Dollar Index has declined by nearly 17.0 percent since June 7, 2010. What will Chairman Bernanke say about the zero percent interest rate policy that he has put into place since December 2008 for the too big to fail banks. Has anyone looked at the interest rate on a savings account lately? We may as well put our cash under a mattress, outside of writing a check there is very little use for a bank these days. What are the retirees on fixed incomes going to say when they see prices increase on a daily basis as there money continues to buy less and less. Will Helicopter Ben address the high oil, gold silver, copper, and every other commodity prices? Perhaps, he will simply say that it is demand driven.

The one question that I would ask Chairman Bernanke would be, if we are a free market society the why are the Fed funds rate set by the Federal Reserve and not set by the market place? How does the Fed or anyone else know what is best for the free markets. Then I would ask him if we really live in a free market society? How can we when the banks can still borrow money for nothing on a daily basis and charge an average of 17.0 percent on a credit card. What do these banks do with all of those cash reserves that are created everyday from QE-2?

Ah, tomorrow is going to fun watching these questions get answered, if they are asked. As far as we know he may just take a page out of Alan Greenspan’s book and simple mumble an answer that people could never understand. Greenspan was good at answering his own questions despite being asked something entirely different. This is going to be a must watch. In the trading community this press conference will get higher ratings than a Seinfeld reunion.

About Nicholas Santiago 575 Articles


Nicholas Santiago started trading in 1991. In 1997, he became a licensed Series 7 and 63 registered representative. He managed money for a large, affluent private client group. After applying his knowledge to his client base, he decided it was time to begin teaching those interested in learning his methods. He is an expert in Technical Analysis. He has become an accomplished technician in the studies of Elliot Wave, Gann Theory, Dow Theory and Cycle Theory. In 2007, he partnered with Gareth Soloway to form InTheMoneyStocks.Com and realize his dream of educating others about the truth of the markets.

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