Can the Fed Vault the S&P 500 Over 1,291?

It was refreshing to see the more respectful atmosphere at last night’s State of the Union address, especially when compared to the partisan, and almost childish, environment during last year’s speech. It remains to be seen if our elected officials can make any meaningful progress on important issues, such as the deficit.

With a Fed statement coming today at 2:15 pm ET, the early part of the trading day will have a muted significance. The S&P 500 closed yesterday at 1,291.18, just below the 1,291.96 level we highlighted on January 19, 2010. The figure below is updated as of Tuesday’s close.

We will have to monitor the big picture closely should the S&P 500 be able to reach either 1,315 or 1,326. Both levels may offer a logical area for a pause of short-term pullback.

The CCM 80-20 Correction Index closed Tuesday at 1,374, an area which historically has yielded average to above average risk-reward ratios for investors. A move above 1,591 on the 80-20 Index would improve the odds of bullish outcomes over the next six months to a year. The 80-20 Index does not currently sit at levels which put us on high alert for a correction.

Similarly, the CCM Bull Market Sustainability Index remains in bullish territory closing Tuesday at 3,745. A move above 4,071 would be concerning relative to increasing odds of a market correction. Our comments made Monday relative to today’s Fed statement still apply.

About Chris Ciovacco 73 Articles

Affiliation: Ciovacco Capital Management

Chris began his investment career with Morgan Stanley in Atlanta in 1994. With a focus on global macro investing, Chris uses both fundamental and technical analysis to assist in managing risk while looking for growth opportunities around the world in all asset classes.

Chris graduated from Georgia Tech with Highest Honors earning a degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering in 1990.

He is now the Chief Investment Officer at Ciovacco Capital Management.

Visit: Ciovacco Capital Management

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