Richmond Manufacturing Index Data Suggests Economic Recovery

RICHMOND FEDERAL RESERVE — In May, the seasonally adjusted manufacturing index—our broadest measure of manufacturing activity—jumped to 4 from April’s reading of -9 (see chart above). Among the index’s components, shipments gained twelve points to 9, new orders rose twelve points to finish at 10, and the jobs index advanced fourteen points to end at -12.

MP: Signalling the end of the 2001 recession, the economy was in full recovery when the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was above zero by early 2002 (see chart above). The index is now above zero for the first time in more than a year, suggesting possibly that the Richmond Fed region, if not the rest of the country, is now in recovery.