Deflation Risk?

With the decline in consumer prices announced today, people are beginning to talk about the risk of deflation once again, though it doesn’t appear there’s much worry since the decline was driven mainly by energy prices:

For the first time in over a half century, the prices U.S. consumers pay for goods and services are lower on average than they were one year ago.

Still, government price data for March suggest the risk of sustained, broad-based price declines known as deflation remains fairly remote, since the drops are still mostly centered in energy and energy-related products.

Separately, capacity use at U.S. factories fell to a record low in March, reflecting the severe toll the recession is taking on manufacturing.

Here’s how John Williams at the SF Fed sees it:

Core and overall measures of price inflation have fallen considerably, reflecting declines in commodity prices and the emergence of considerable economic slack. We expect core inflation to continue to edge down, reaching 1 percent in 2010. Given the weakness of the U.S. and global economies, the outlook for inflation is highly uncertain. Some Phillips-curve inflation forecasting models based on the view that inflation expectations are unanchored predict a high probability of deflation next year. In contrast, Phillips-curve models based on the well-anchored inflation expectations seen over the past 16 years indicate little probability of deflation and predict inflation rising towards 2 percent over the next two years.

About Mark Thoma 243 Articles

Affiliation: University of Oregon

Mark Thoma is a member of the Economics Department at the University of Oregon. He joined the UO faculty in 1987 and served as head of the Economics Department for five years. His research examines the effects that changes in monetary policy have on inflation, output, unemployment, interest rates and other macroeconomic variables with a focus on asymmetries in the response of these variables to policy changes, and on changes in the relationship between policy and the economy over time. He has also conducted research in other areas such as the relationship between the political party in power, and macroeconomic outcomes and using macroeconomic tools to predict transportation flows. He received his doctorate from Washington State University.

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