USD/CAD: Headed to 1.30?

March 2, 2009 Kathy Lien

In the middle of February, when USD/CAD was trading at 1.2515, I talked about how it could hit 1.28. Now that this target has been reached, the move could extend to 1.30.

At the time, I argued that the shrinking trade deficit in the US and the first trade deficit for Canada in 32 years would lead to more strength for USD/CAD. This morning, Canadian GDP numbers were much weaker than expected. In the fourth quarter, the economy contracted at the fastest pace since 1991, 17 years ago.

USD/CAD is also trading higher because of broad dollar strength. The dollar has skyrocketed as the Dow breaks 7k to hit the lowest level in 11 years.

USD/CAD is trading well into the Bollinger Buy Zone which i mentioned on Feb 11. There is scope for a bit of a retracement, but as long as the currency pair holds above 1.2600, we could see a move to 1.30. If USD/CAD does manage to trade at 1.30, we could see a gap higher.

Poor Canada has a lot more trouble ahead due to its sensitivity to the US economy. The only silver lining is the rally in oil prices.

Graph 1

Graph: eSignal

About Kathy Lien 236 Articles

Kathy Lien is an Internationally Published Author and Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com, one of the world’s most popular online websites for currency research. Her trading books include the highly acclaimed, Day Trading the Currency Market: Technical and Fundamental Strategies to Profit form Market Swings (2005, Wiley); High Probability Trading Setups for the Currency Market E-Book (2006, Investopedia); and Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Are Beating Wall Street at Its Own Game (2007, Wiley). As Chief Currency Strategist at FXCM, Kathy is responsible for providing research and analysis for DailyFX, the research arm of FXCM. She also co-edits the BK Forex Advisor, an Investopedia.com Premium Service with Boris Schlossberg – one of the few investment advisory letters focusing strictly on the 2 Trillion/day FX market.

Kathy is also one of the authors of Investopedia’s Forex Education section and has written for Tradingmarkets.com, the Asia Times Online, Stocks & Commodities Magazine, MarketWatch, ActiveTrader Magazine, Currency Trader, Futures Magazine and SFO. She is frequently quoted by Bloomberg, Reuters, the Wall street Journal, and the International Herald Tribune and has appeared on CNN, CNBC, CBS and Bloomberg Radio. She has also hosted trader chats on EliteTrader, eSignal and FXStreet, sharing her expertise in both technical and fundamental analysis.

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