Top Firm Names AMD a ‘Best Idea for 2026’ – Helios Platform Seen as Game-Changer

• TD Cowen added AMD to its “Best Ideas 2026” list, maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating and $290 price target, viewing the recent sell off as an “attractive entry point” ahead of the mid-2026 Helios rack-scale platform and MI450 accelerator launch.
• The firm expects a major AI inflection for AMD, forecasting a >$10 EPS run-rate in Q4 2026 and $89 billion in cumulative Instinct sales by 2030 (67% CAGR), while asserting bearish sentiment is overdone and AI compute spending will remain durable.
• Despite competitive concerns and OpenAI exposure, TD Cowen believes AMD is unfairly discounted relative to peers and that its server CPU and PC segments will provide additional support as real-time AI inference demand grows.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has been added by TD Cowen to its “Best Ideas 2026” list, reflecting strong conviction that the company stands at the threshold of a significant upward inflection in its artificial intelligence trajectory. The primary catalyst identified by the firm is the impending launch of the Helios rack-scale platform, which is expected to substantially accelerate AMD’s presence in the data center AI market beginning in mid-2026.

TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on AMD with a $290 price target, describing the stock’s recent decline as an “attractive entry point” following a close of $217.97 on Friday. With a market capitalization of $355 billion and a year-to-date gain of nearly 81%, the firm views current levels as disconnected from the fundamental improvements anticipated over the next several quarters.

Central to the bullish thesis is the expected ramp of the Helios platform alongside the MI450 accelerator family. These products are positioned to address the growing demand for scalable, power-efficient AI infrastructure at the rack and data center level, areas where AMD has historically trailed Nvidia (NVDA) but is now closing the gap through architectural integration and software ecosystem maturity. TD Cowen projects that successful execution will drive a marked re-rating of the stock as investors recognize a more durable multi-year growth profile.

The firm forecasts a fourth-quarter 2026 earnings per share run-rate exceeding $10, representing roughly a doubling both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. Longer term, TD Cowen models $89 billion in cumulative Instinct accelerator sales through 2030, equating to a 67% compound annual growth rate from the current base. Notably, this projection remains below the greater than 80% CAGR guidance previously provided by AMD management, suggesting potential for upside if adoption tracks or exceeds internal expectations.

Despite intensifying competitive scrutiny and periodic concerns about an AI investment bubble, TD Cowen asserts that capital spending on AI compute will prove resilient. The firm contends that AMD has secured a clear second-source position in the accelerator market and that recent bearish sentiment has been disproportionate relative to peers. This sentiment overhang is expected to dissipate as Helios deliverables become visible to customers in the second half of 2026.

Additional points of emphasis include limited vulnerability to any single hyperscale customer, with 2027 revenue exposure to OpenAI described as roughly in line with industry peers, and thus not warranting the discount currently embedded in the shares. Beyond accelerators, the firm highlights continued strength in AMD’s server CPU and client PC businesses, segments that are increasingly benefiting from the proliferation of AI workloads requiring real-time inference at the edge and in traditional computing environments.

In summary, TD Cowen believes AMD is approaching a pivotal transition from a period of heavy investment and share-gaining efforts into a phase characterized by accelerating revenue, expanding margins, and improving free cash flow generation, all supported by a broadening portfolio of competitive AI solutions.

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