Futures Rise as Trump Trade Deals and Tax Bill Gain Momentum

• US stock futures rose sharply on Monday, with S&P 500 futures up 0.43% to 6,249.50, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.62% to 22,892.25, and Dow futures up 0.54% to 44,364.00, driven by optimism over progress in trade talks and expectations of new record highs.
• Canada’s decision to scrap its digital services tax and limited trade accords with China and the UK have eased concerns about a global trade war, while the Senate debates a $4.5 trillion tax cut bill that could add $3.3 trillion to the deficit over a decade.
• June saw strong equity gains, with the S&P 500 (SPX) up 4.4%, Nasdaq (COMP) up 6.1%, and Dow (DJIA) up 3.7%, as markets await the June jobs report and monitor potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with trading curtailed by the Fourth of July holiday.

US stock futures surged on Monday, buoyed by optimism surrounding progress in trade negotiations and anticipation of fresh record highs for major indexes, capping a turbulent first half of 2025. S&P 500 futures (SPX) advanced 27 points, or 0.43%, to 6,249.50, while Nasdaq 100 futures (COMP) rose 141 points, or 0.62%, to 22,892.25. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed 239 points, or 0.54%, to 44,364.00, signaling robust momentum as markets entered a holiday-shortened week.

The upbeat sentiment stems from easing concerns over a potential global trade war, particularly as the July 9 deadline for resuming sweeping US “reciprocal” tariffs approaches. President Trump’s administration has secured limited trade accords with China and the UK, with the latter taking effect on Monday. A significant development came late Sunday when Canada abandoned its digital services tax targeting US tech firms, a move that revived stalled trade talks after Trump labeled the tax a “blatant attack” on the US and halted negotiations on Friday. These steps have fueled hopes that broader tariff disputes may be avoided, supporting market confidence.

June has proven to be a strong month for equities, with the S&P 500 gaining 4.4%, the Nasdaq soaring more than 6%, and the Dow rising 3.7%. This recovery follows a volatile first half, marked by an 18% year-to-date drop in the S&P 500 at its April low, driven by global trade and tariff tensions. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq achieved record closes on Friday, their first since February, reflecting a sharp rebound from earlier uncertainties.

Beyond trade, markets are attuned to domestic policy developments. Senate negotiations over President Trump’s proposed $4.5 trillion tax cut bill are intensifying, with Republican leaders working to secure support amid concerns from the Congressional Budget Office that the legislation could increase the federal deficit by $3.3 trillion over ten years. A marathon session of amendments is scheduled for Monday, drawing close scrutiny from investors.

In economic data, the upcoming June jobs report on Thursday is expected to provide critical insights into the labor market’s health, with growing speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts if the data signals softening. Trading volumes will be lighter this week, with markets closing early at 1 p.m. on Thursday and remaining closed on Friday for the Fourth of July holiday.

In other markets, gold edged higher by $2.90 to $3,290.30 per ounce, while crude oil dipped slightly by $0.28 to $65.24. The 30-year Treasury yield rose 0.029, or 0.60%, to 4.8450, while the 10-year Treasury futures yield fell 0.033, or 0.772%, to 4.2400. The VIX, often referred to as the market’s fear gauge, increased 0.72, or 4.42%, to 17.04, indicating a slight uptick in expected volatility.

As the second half of 2025 begins, investors remain focused on the interplay of trade policy, fiscal legislation, and monetary policy signals. The combination of record-high equity valuations and critical upcoming economic data underscores the delicate balance markets must navigate in the weeks ahead.

WallStreetPit does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

• Bulenox: Get 91% OFF ... Use Discount Code: ZYY8U
• Risk Our Money Not Yours | Get 50% to 90% OFF ... Use Discount Code: MMBVBKSM
• Looking for the Best Cash Back? You’ve Found It