Goldman Sachs Still Skeptical of Tesla’s Robotaxi Vision

• Tesla Inc. (TSLA) launched its robotaxi service on June 22, in Austin, Texas, driving an 8% stock surge on June 23, adding over $90 billion to its market cap, roughly double Waymo’s $45 billion valuation as of October 2024.
• Goldman Sachs (GS) analyst Mark Delaney maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating with a $285 price target, citing near-term scaling challenges for Tesla’s robotaxi service due to technical issues and the need for an employee in the vehicle.
• Since the November 2024 election, Tesla’s stock soared nearly 100% by December but fell nearly 50% from that peak by March 2025, impacted by weak EV sales, political controversies, and a 14% drop on June 5, after President Trump’s contract threats.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) has experienced significant volatility in its stock performance since the U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024, reflecting a mix of optimism around its autonomous driving ambitions and challenges tied to market dynamics and external pressures. Goldman Sachs (GS) analyst Mark Delaney maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating this week on Tesla with a 12-month price target of $285, expressing caution about the near-term scalability of Tesla’s newly launched robotaxi service, which began operations on June 22, in Austin, Texas, for a select group of early-access individuals. Despite investor enthusiasm driving an 8% surge in Tesla’s stock price on June 23, adding over $90 billion to its market cap – roughly double the reported $45 billion valuation of rival Waymo as of October 2024 – Delaney warned that scaling the robotaxi service may face hurdles, citing the use of an Austin-specific tech stack, the presence of a Tesla employee in the vehicle, and navigation issues observed on the first day.

The broader context of Tesla’s stock performance since the election reveals a dramatic arc. Immediately following Donald Trump’s victory, Tesla shares soared, gaining 41% by November 12, 2024, and nearly 100% by December 17, 2024, from April 2024 lows, driven by investor optimism about CEO Elon Musk’s ties to the incoming administration and expectations of favorable policies. The stock hit a record high in December 2024, with a market cap reclaiming the $1 trillion mark. However, this rally unraveled in early 2025, with shares plummeting nearly 50% from their December peak by March 10, 2025, erasing most post-election gains. A notable 14% drop on June 5, 2025, followed President Trump’s threats to pull government contracts amid a public dispute with Musk, further pressuring the stock. Weak electric vehicle sales and Musk’s political involvement have also been cited as factors weighing on investor sentiment.

Delaney’s analysis highlights Tesla’s challenges in the autonomous vehicle space, despite its ambitious robotaxi launch. The requirement for an employee in the passenger seat and early technical issues suggest that Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology may not yet be ready for widespread consumer use across broad operating areas. This contrasts with Waymo, which Goldman Sachs views as more advanced in robotaxi operations. Tesla’s valuation – currently at $1.05T – while boosted by the robotaxi announcement, may already reflect significant expectations for autonomous vehicle profits, according to Delaney, tempering the potential for further near-term gains. The company’s focus on scaling its robotaxi fleet, projected to reach 35,000 vehicles by 2026 compared to Waymo’s 2,000, underscores its long-term ambitions but also highlights the gap between current capabilities and future goals.

Tesla’s stock trajectory since the election reflects broader market dynamics, including investor reactions to trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and the company’s strategic pivot toward AI and autonomy. While the robotaxi launch marks a step toward Musk’s vision of transforming Tesla into a leader in autonomous transportation, near-term challenges in scaling and external pressures, including political controversies, continue to shape its volatile market performance. Investors remain divided on whether Tesla’s current valuation justifies its long-term potential in the face of these uncertainties.

WallStreetPit does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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