Wall Street Bull Predicts 10% S&P 500 Rally by End of 2025

• BMO Capital Markets’ Brian Belski raised his S&P 500 (SPX) year-end target to 6,700 from 6,100, forecasting a 10% rally from current levels near an all-time high.
• Tariff fears have eased with the U.S. tariff rate dropping from over 25% to 14%, per the Yale Budget Lab, prompting eight of 11 Wall Street firms to lift their 2025 S&P 500 targets after April’s sell-off.
• Belski highlights improving earnings outlooks in communication services, consumer discretionary, technology, and financials, signaling a broader market recovery and renewed confidence in U.S. equities.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is poised for significant gains, according to BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski, who raised his year-end target for the index to 6,700 from 6,100, as reported by Yahoo Finance. This bullish outlook, detailed in a Tuesday note titled “same as it ever was,” reflects a 10% rally potential from current levels, which are within 1% of an all-time high. Belski’s optimism stems from a stabilizing market environment, with tariff-related fears subsiding after President Trump’s policy adjustments reduced the effective U.S. tariff rate from over 25% to about 14%, per the Yale Budget Lab, prompting a reversal of the early April “Sell America” trade.

Belski’s revised forecast aligns with a broader shift among Wall Street strategists, with at least eight of the 11 firms that lowered S&P 500 targets during April’s tariff-driven sell-off now raising their 2025 projections. He highlights improving economic forecasts and corporate earnings expectations, particularly in sectors like communication services, consumer discretionary, technology, and financials, which he believes are still undervalued in their recovery potential. The report notes that the strategist sees markets moving from a fear-driven “scare me” phase to a “show me” phase, with performance broadening and corporate guidance expected to strengthen post-second-quarter earnings.

The unwind of tariff concerns, following Trump’s tariff delays, has bolstered confidence in U.S. equities, which Belski views as the premier global equity asset due to their consistent fundamentals, innovation, and diversification. His earlier caution on April 9, when he cut his target due to a 30% gap above the S&P 500’s level at the time, has given way to renewed conviction. Belski dismisses the notion that “American Exceptionalism” is waning, arguing that its decline was overstated. As the S&P 500 nears record territory, the combination of easing geopolitical tensions, robust corporate performance, and a resilient U.S. economy underpins the growing bullish sentiment among investors and strategists alike.

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