UBS Hikes S&P 500 Target, Sees More Room to Run in 2026

• UBS Global Wealth Management raised its S&P 500 (SPX) year-end 2025 target to 6,000 from 5,800 and set a June 2026 target of 6,400, driven by a strong Q1 earnings season and improved GDP growth expectations.
• The firm increased its S&P 500 EPS forecasts to $260 for 2025, up from $250, and $280 for 2026, up from $275, reflecting optimism about corporate profitability and economic resilience.

UBS Global Wealth Management has revised its outlook for the S&P 500 (SPX), reflecting growing optimism about U.S. economic prospects and corporate earnings. The firm now projects the S&P 500 to reach 6,000 by the end of 2025, up from its prior target of 5,800, and has introduced a June 2026 target of 6,400. This bullish stance is underpinned by a robust first-quarter earnings season that exceeded expectations and slightly elevated forecasts for GDP growth in the second half of 2025. David Lefkowitz, head of U.S. equities at UBS, emphasized these factors as key drivers behind the upgraded projections, signaling confidence in sustained market momentum.

The research group also raised its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the S&P 500, forecasting $260 for 2025, an increase from $250, and $280 for 2026, up from $275. These adjustments reflect expectations of stronger corporate profitability, driven by resilient consumer demand, technological advancements, and favorable monetary policies. The Federal Reserve’s recent signals of potential rate stability, following a period of high interest rates to curb inflation, have bolstered market sentiment, supporting UBS’s view of continued equity market growth. The firm’s projections align with broader market trends, where sectors like technology and financials have shown resilience amid economic uncertainties.

UBS’s revised targets suggest a potential 12% upside from the S&P 500’s recent levels, offering investors a positive outlook despite concerns over geopolitical risks and persistent inflationary pressures. The firm’s confidence is further supported by improving corporate balance sheets and increased capital expenditures, particularly in industries poised to benefit from digital transformation and infrastructure spending. As markets navigate a complex global environment, UBS’s forecasts underscore the potential for U.S. equities to deliver strong returns, driven by solid fundamentals and economic growth prospects through 2026.

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