- Stock futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell 18 points (0.32%) to 5,566.75 and 112 points (0.57%) to 19,529.75, respectively, while Dow futures rose 37 points (0.09%) to 40,695.00, as investors await critical GDP and inflation data amid April’s market volatility.
- President Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2 triggered significant market swings, but optimism about potential trade deals and retail investor buying helped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq limit monthly losses to 0.9%, while the Dow faces a 3.5% decline.
- Wednesday’s economic reports, including a projected 0.4% GDP growth rate and March’s personal consumption expenditures price index, alongside earnings from Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT), could shape market direction.
Stock futures tied to the S&P 500 dipped slightly early Wednesday, with S&P 500 futures declining 18 points, or 0.32%, to 5,566.75, as investors braced for a slew of critical economic data that could shape market sentiment after a volatile April. The Nasdaq 100 futures fell more sharply, down 112 points, or 0.57%, to 19,529.75, reflecting tech sector pressures, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edged up 37 points, or 0.09%, to 40,695.00. The market’s cautious stance comes as traders await the first quarter GDP report, expected to show a sluggish annualized growth rate of 0.4%, according to Dow Jones estimates, with some Wall Street banks revising forecasts downward, signaling risks of negative growth. The personal consumption expenditures price index for March, another key inflation gauge, is also set for release, potentially influencing expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
April has proven turbulent for equities, driven by President Donald Trump’s April 2 announcement of sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs, which sparked significant volatility. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) briefly entered bear market territory on April 7 but has since recovered, posting a modest 0.9% loss for the month. The Dow (^DJI), despite a stronger Tuesday session where it climbed 300 points, remains on track for a 3.5% decline in April, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), buoyed by tech resilience, is up 0.9%. Tuesday’s gains, with the S&P 500 rising 0.58% and the Nasdaq advancing 0.55%, marked the sixth consecutive day of increases for both indexes, supported by optimism around trade developments. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s comments to CNBC about an impending trade deal, coupled with Trump’s statement that tariff negotiations with India are “coming along great”, fueled hopes of a potential U.S.-India agreement, lifting market sentiment.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighted a divergence in investor behavior, noting that individual investors have been steadfast buyers during the month’s sell-off, capitalizing on dips, while institutional investors have shown signs of panic. This retail resilience has helped stabilize markets amid the uncertainty. The broader economic context remains precarious, with the GDP report and inflation data poised to clarify whether the economy is teetering on the edge of recession. A weak GDP reading could intensify fears of an economic slowdown, particularly as global trade tensions linger and monetary policy remains in focus. Meanwhile, private sector payrolls increased by only 62,000 this month, marking the smallest gain since July 2024.
Corporate earnings are also under scrutiny, with Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) set to report Wednesday afternoon, following Alphabet’s (GOOG, GOOGL) strong earnings last week, which exceeded expectations due to robust ad sales. These tech giants’ results could either bolster or undermine confidence in the sector, especially as the Nasdaq navigates its outperformance this month. The interplay of macroeconomic data, corporate performance, and trade policy developments will likely dictate the market’s near-term trajectory, with investors keenly aware that April’s volatility may spill into May if economic indicators disappoint or trade optimism fades.
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