Gold Prices Shatter Records Again

• Gold surpassed $3,400 per ounce, setting new nominal and inflation-adjusted records, exceeding the 1980 benchmark, driven by economic uncertainty and strong investor demand.
• Goldman Sachs (GS) forecasts gold reaching $3,700 by end-2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026, with official-sector purchases rising to 80 tons per month and a 45% recession risk boosting ETF inflows.
• A potential recession could push gold to $3,880 by year-end, as central banks and investors hedge against trade tensions and declining risk asset prices, reinforcing gold’s safe-haven status.

Gold’s unprecedented surge has propelled the precious metal to new heights, surpassing $3,400 per ounce for the first time and setting both nominal and inflation-adjusted records, eclipsing the 1980 benchmark. This rally, driven by heightened economic uncertainty, aligns with Goldman Sachs’ recent bullish outlook, which projects gold reaching $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026, fueled by robust official-sector purchases expected to average 80 tons per month, up from a prior estimate of 70 tons. The bank’s analysts highlight a 45% recession probability, noting that such risks could accelerate inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), potentially pushing prices to $3,880 by year-end if a downturn materializes.

The surge in gold prices reflects its role as a safe-haven asset amid global trade tensions and market volatility, with recent ETF inflows exceeding expectations as investors hedge against declining risk asset prices. Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are bolstering reserves with gold to diversify away from the U.S. dollar, a trend intensified by geopolitical uncertainties and tariff policies introduced in 2025. Goldman Sachs’ reaffirmed long gold trade recommendation underscores the metal’s appeal in a climate where recession fears and macroeconomic instability drive demand, positioning gold as a critical hedge in portfolios navigating an increasingly uncertain economic landscape.

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