- U.S. stocks rallied on Monday, with the S&P 500 up more than 1.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 1.3% or 523-plus points, and the Nas rising 2%, driven by reports from Bloomberg and the WSJ that Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2 will be less extensive, targeting the “dirty 15” countries.
- Easing tariff fears, which had fueled a month-long market sell-off, prompted Fundstrat’s Tom Lee to predict a potential “face-ripper rally,” while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted the 15% of countries involved represent a significant U.S. trading volume, brightening market sentiment.
- Strategists like Piper Sandler’s Michael Kantrowitz see tariff clarity as the key to a market bottom, though Raymond James’ Matt Orton warns that Monday’s gains may not solidify without official confirmation, leaving investors awaiting April 2 for full resolution.
U.S. stock markets surged on Monday morning, buoyed by reports suggesting President Trump’s anticipated tariffs may be less extensive than previously feared, providing a glimmer of clarity that investors have eagerly awaited. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed 1.53%-recovering its 200-day MA, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained approximately 1.3% – equating to more than 523 points – and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) outpaced both with a 2%, or 355 point rise, reflecting a tech-driven optimism. This rally, as reported by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, stems from indications that Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, set for April 2, will target a narrower scope – specifically the “dirty 15” countries with significant trade imbalances – rather than the sweeping measures markets had braced for over the past month.
The prospect of tempered tariffs has shifted market sentiment, with Fundstrat’s Tom Lee noting in a Sunday client update that easing trade war fears could pave the way for a “face-ripper rally” this week, potentially reversing December’s equity slump.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced this focus last week on Fox Business, stating that while the tariffed nations represent just 15% of countries, they account for a substantial portion of U.S. trading volume. This nuanced approach has alleviated some of the uncertainty that Piper Sandler’s Michael Kantrowitz identified as the primary catalyst for the recent sell-off, suggesting that resolution of this policy ambiguity could mark the market’s turning point. “Usually, [when] the primary catalyst that stops becoming a problem, essentially, that allows the market to find its footing,” Kantrowitz told YF, a view echoed by Monday’s gains.
Despite the uptick, equity strategists like Raymond James’ Matt Orton caution that the relief may be premature without official confirmation from the Trump administration. Orton, speaking to Yahoo Finance, attributed the rally to a lack of negative surprises from the White House last week and incrementally positive tariff signals, but stressed, “I don’t know if there’s too much that we can put into that until we actually have certainty, until we’re actually past April 2nd.” The market’s month-long sensitivity to tariff speculation underscores a broader truth: while Monday’s 1.5% S&P 500 rise and 2% Nasdaq jump signal hope, sustained recovery hinges on definitive policy details. For now, the “dirty 15” focus offers a lifeline, but investors remain poised for April 2 to fully lift the tariff overhang clouding equities.
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