- Apple’s (AAPL) stock has fallen 18% from its 52-week high of $260.10, erasing over $700 billion in market cap and bringing its valuation down to $3.2 trillion. This decline was fueled by delays in the AI-upgraded Siri rollout and an 11% weekly drop last week, marking the worst performance since November 2022.
- Morgan Stanley (MS) cut its price target to $252 from $275 and lowered iPhone shipment forecasts by 1%-5%, to 230 million for 2025 and 243 million for 2026, citing Siri’s delay past the iPhone 17 launch as a blow to AI-driven upgrades.
- Trump’s China tariffs threaten to add $2 billion to Apple’s costs over the next 12 months, compounding pressures from a faltering AI strategy and a broader Big Tech downturn in 2025.
Apple’s (AAPL) stock, currently trading around the mid-$212 range, now holds a market cap of $3.21 trillion. This marks a loss of over $700 billion since its peak valuation of $3.9 trillion on December 26, when shares reached a 52-week high of $260.10, reflecting an 18% drop driven by AI stumbles and broader market unease. Cupertino’s woes intensified last week with an 11% plunge – the steepest since November 2022 – compounded by a delayed AI-upgraded Siri, now pushed beyond its planned April rollout, prompting Morgan Stanley (MS) to reduce its price target to $252 from $275. Analysts, led by Erik Woodring, also trimmed iPhone shipment forecasts by 1%-5%, now projecting 230 million units in 2025 and 243 million in 2026, reflecting a flatter replacement cycle curve due to the postponed rollout of an advanced Siri. This AI setback, a cornerstone feature meant to spur upgrades, prompted Woodring to lower AAPL’s price target while retaining an ‘Overweight’ rating, signaling tempered optimism despite the hurdles.
The ripple effects extend to Apple’s financials, with Morgan Stanley slashing its fiscal 2026 estimates by 5%-6%, landing at $436 billion in revenue and $8 per share in earnings—numbers that dip slightly below Wall Street’s consensus.
The broader context reveals a company caught in a storm of its own making and external pressures. Apple’s second wave of Apple Intelligence features, including ChatGPT integration in December, briefly fueled optimism, but the shine has faded as Big Tech grapples with a 2025 market downturn tied to overhyped AI expectations. Morgan Stanley’s March 12 note flagged the upgraded Siri as the top AI feature iPhone upgraders crave, per consumer surveys, yet its delay until after the iPhone 17 launch dims hopes of AI sparking a sales surge in 2026. Woodring noted other growth drivers could emerge, but without a standout AI application, the transformative lift once envisioned for Apple’s ecosystem looks elusive.
External headwinds add another layer of strain, with Trump’s China tariffs poised to inflate Apple’s costs by $2 billion over the next year, according to Morgan Stanley’s analysis last week. This hits at a time when Apple’s AI narrative – central to justifying its premium valuation – shows cracks, leaving investors wary of both execution risks and macroeconomic fallout. The $3.2 trillion valuation, while still towering, reflects a recalibration as the market questions whether Apple can deliver the AI-driven growth needed to reclaim its December heights. For now, the iPhone giant faces a pivotal stretch, balancing innovation delays against a costlier supply chain, with its stock’s 18% retreat signaling a rare moment of vulnerability.
WallStreetPit does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Leave a Reply