From Dip to Double: Dan Ives’ Bold Tesla Prediction

• Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities remains bullish on Tesla (TSLA) despite a seven-week stock decline, viewing the sell-off as a “generational opportunity” driven by upcoming advancements in autonomous driving and a lower-cost vehicle.
• He estimates that brand damage from Elon Musk’s political ties and distractions like DOGE is minimal, with surveys showing fewer than 5% of Tesla owners reconsidering ownership, and predicts Musk will refocus on Tesla within months.
• Ives forecasts Tesla’s stock doubling in 6-12 months, with 90% of its future value tied to autonomous technology and the Optimus robot, potentially outweighing the company’s current market cap.

Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities’ global head of technology research, recently joined CNBC’s Squawk on the Street to discuss Tesla’s current trajectory amid a challenging period for the electric vehicle giant. Tesla’s (TSLA) stock is on pace for a seventh straight week of declines—the longest weekly losing streak in its history. Since January, when the current U.S. president took office, shares have shed roughly 40% of their value, erasing about half a trillion dollars in market capitalization. This loss exceeds the total market caps of major companies like Costco (COST), Exxon (XOM), Oracle (ORCL), and Netflix (NFLX), underscoring the scale of Tesla’s recent struggles.

Despite this downturn, Ives remains steadfastly bullish, maintaining an “Outperform” rating on Tesla with a price target of $550. He views the sell-off as a rare buying opportunity, one he believes could be remembered as a “generational” moment for investors. Acknowledging the headwinds – frustrations over sales figures in Europe and China, brand perception challenges tied to Elon Musk’s public persona, and distractions like his involvement with DOGE (the Department of Government Efficiency) – Ives argues these issues are temporary. He predicts Tesla is on the cusp of its most significant technological leap in perhaps a decade, driven by advancements in autonomous driving technology and the development of a lower-cost vehicle. Over the next 12 to 18 months, he expects these innovations to propel Tesla into a transformative growth phase.

When pressed on whether Musk’s association with the brand – particularly his recent political alignment with President Trump and time spent in Washington – might alienate customers, Ives downplayed the risk. He pointed to survey data from Wedbush, based on responses from 1,000 Tesla owners, showing that fewer than 5% would reconsider their ownership due to Musk’s actions. While he estimates that 10-15% of recent sales declines could stem from brand-related concerns, he believes the impact is limited. Ives tied Musk’s Trump bet to a broader vision, suggesting that a deregulatory environment could unlock a trillion-dollar opportunity in autonomous driving, a cornerstone of Tesla’s future value.

The moderators raised concerns about Musk’s divided attention, given his roles at multiple companies and his current focus on DOGE alongside the president. Ives brushed off these worries, drawing parallels to past periods of distraction, such as Musk’s acquisition of Twitter (now X). He argued that, based on conversations with Tesla insiders, Musk remains deeply involved in steering the company’s major initiatives, particularly around Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and autonomous systems. Ives predicted that within three to six months, Musk’s focus on Tesla will become more evident as these projects advance.

Addressing skepticism about the 5% figure – especially given anecdotal reports of environmentally conscious, center-left Tesla buyers reconsidering their loyalty – Ives stood firm. He cited Wedbush’s survey work and discussions with dealerships in Europe, China, and the U.S., emphasizing that the brand damage is overstated. For Tesla bulls, he admitted, this is a “dark time,” marked by relentless negative headlines. Yet, rather than retreat, Ives urged investors to “double down,” adding Tesla to Wedbush’s top picks. He forecasts the stock doubling in value within six to twelve months, driven not by traditional car sales but by autonomous technology and the Optimus humanoid robot project. He estimates that 90% of Tesla’s future valuation hinges on these innovations, with autonomous driving alone potentially worth more than the company’s current market cap.

Ives painted a picture of resilience amid adversity, framing this moment as a “white-knuckle” phase for Tesla investors. Despite the barrage of bad news, he sees the company entering a “golden path,” where Musk’s vision and Tesla’s technological edge could redefine its trajectory. For Ives, the current gloom is a fleeting detour on the road to a solid payoff.

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