- Adam Parker of Trivariate Research predicts a choppy first half of 2025 due to tariff uncertainty and cautious CEOs, but expects a growth resumption by the second quarter, driven by AI productivity and clearer policy.
- Tom Lee of Fundstrat remains optimistic, citing a market rising on bad news – like a weak ADP jobs report – as a sign that negativity is priced in, forecasting a potential 15% rally in March, April, or May.
- Both see opportunity in the unsettled market, with Lee highlighting the “10 best days” driving 21 points of last year’s S&P (^GSPC) gains, and Parker eyeing a post-April turnaround, despite stagflation concerns and soft consumer data.
Adam Parker of Trivariate Research and Tom Lee of Fundstrat brought their market insights to CNBC’s ‘Closing Bell’ on Wednesday, painting a picture of a market wrestling with uncertainty but ripe with potential. Parker sees a rocky road ahead, predicting a choppy first half of the year as CEOs grapple with tariff unknowns and policy shifts, holding off on big capital moves until the dust settles around April earnings. He’s optimistic, though, that clarity will spark a turnaround, with AI-driven productivity and revenue growth lifting stocks in the second quarter—provided stagflation fears, fueled by soft consumer signals like Walmart’s (WMT) numbers and retail sales, don’t derail the path. Lee, ever the bull, agrees the last six weeks have felt like a sentiment bear market, with hedge funds pulling back and momentum tanking, yet he’s unfazed, pointing to a market that’s shrugging off bad news – like a weak ADP jobs report – suggesting much of the gloom is already priced in.
Lee’s betting on a blockbuster spring, forecasting a possible 15% rally across March, April, and May, driven by what he calls the “10 best days” phenomenon—last year, those days accounted for 21 percentage points of the S&P’s (^GSPC) gains, without which it’d have risen just 4%. He argues the setup’s near, with a softening job market potentially triggering a “Trump put” to counter austerity or a “Fed put” to dodge an economic stall, both acting as backstops to ignite investor appetite. Parker’s less certain on timing, wary of tariff headlines and earnings hits, but aligns with Lee that the choppiness – tied to fears of slowing growth and rising prices – won’t last forever; he’d short stagflation as a concept, just not yet, eyeing a clearer runway by mid-year. Together, they see a market at a crossroads: cautious CEOs sitting on their hands, per Parker’s phrase, versus investors who, as Lee notes, must bet early—making this market dip a buy if you believe the catalysts are close.
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