Don’t Worry Be Happy

Happy Friday!!

I have to admit, virtually every major story I review today would seem to indicate further challenges for the American economy. In the perverse world of the Uncle Sam economy circa 2009, those challenges seemingly do not present hurdles for our markets but rather greater comfort for those who would want to add to positions via the dollar carry trade. Is that bizarre? No, that’s the market. While many may not believe what the market is saying, please recall I always maintain the market is never right nor wrong, per se. It is merely the market.

What stories represent increasingly high hurdles on our domestic front?

1. The Federal Housing Administration, which now plays an ever larger role in our domestic housing market, is poised for a bailout by Uncle Sam. You didn’t actually believe the FHA leadership when it stated a mere few weeks ago that it would not need a bailout. Do not believe that man behind the curtain. Whether it is Freddie or Fannie, or now the FHA, the American taxpayer will most likely continue to pour multiple billions into the sinkholes of these three organizations. Let’s be honest. Our housing sector, to a very large extent, is nothing more than a social experiment.

Don’t worry, be happy!!

2. Our trade deficit unexpectedly widened. All other things being equal, that report would serve as a drag on our GDP, hit our greenback, likely push interest rates higher and equities lower.  Discounting the actual economic reasons that impacted this increase in the trade deficit, the market is comforted by the fact that the dollar should remain under pressure based on this report. A lower dollar comforts the leveraged positions across wide swaths of our markets.

Don’t worry, be happy!!

3. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence reading plummets to a devilish level of 66 from 70.6. The market was expecting a bounce in this report to as high as 72. Reason to worry? Holiday sales might be a problem?

Come on, it’s Friday, don’t be a downer.

Don’t worry, be happy!!

What a world.

About Larry Doyle 522 Articles

Larry Doyle embarked on his Wall Street career in 1983 as a mortgage-backed securities trader for The First Boston Corporation. He was involved in the growth and development of the secondary mortgage market from its near infancy.

After close to 7 years at First Boston, Larry joined Bear Stearns in early 1990 as a mortgage trader. In 1993, Larry was named a Senior Managing Director at the firm. He left Bear to join Union Bank of Switzerland in late 1996 as Head of Mortgage Trading.

In 1998, after 15 years of trading and precipitated by Swiss Bank’s takeover of UBS, Larry moved from trading to sales as a senior salesperson at Bank of America. His move into sales led him to the role as National Sales Manager for Securitized Products at JP Morgan Chase in 2000. He was integrally involved in developing the department, hiring 40 salespeople, and generating $300 million in sales revenue. He left JP Morgan in 2006.

Throughout his career, Larry eagerly engaged clients and colleagues. He has mentored dozens of junior colleagues, recruited at a number of colleges and universities, and interviewed hundreds. He has also had extensive public speaking experience. Additionally, Larry served as Chair of the Mortgage Trading Committee for the Public Securities Association (PSA) in the mid-90s.

Larry graduated Cum Laude, Phi Beta Kappa in 1983 from the College of the Holy Cross.

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