Double Catalyst Sends Shopify Flying: Earnings Beat and Upbeat Outlook

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Shopify Inc. (SHOP) witnessed another significant surge in its stock price following the release of its third-quarter earnings, which showcased robust revenue growth and a notable improvement in profitability. The shares of the e-commerce giant jumped over 26% in early trading on Tuesday, adding to the company’s pattern of volatile stock movements post-earnings. This follows a 17.8% increase when Shopify reported its second-quarter earnings in August.

The company reported $2.16 billion in revenue for the third quarter, marking a 26% increase from the $1.71 billion it earned in the same quarter the previous year. This figure surpassed Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $2.12 billion, indicating Shopify’s capacity for continued growth even amidst a challenging economic backdrop.

Jefferies analyst Samad Samana commented on Shopify’s performance, noting that the company “can continue to effectively and profitably scale the business.” This growth comes from not just expanding its platform but doing so efficiently.

Looking ahead, Shopify projected a revenue growth rate in the mid to high 20s for the fourth quarter, which, although not providing an exact figure, suggests expectations higher than the $2.63 billion analysts had anticipated, which would represent just under 23% growth.

The gross merchandise volume (GMV), which reflects the total sales value processed through Shopify’s platform, reached $69.72 billion, up from $56.21 billion the year before. This was also above the average analyst estimate of $68.12 billion, underscoring the increasing trust and reliance merchants have on Shopify’s ecosystem for their e-commerce needs.

Despite earlier investments in staffing and logistics during the peak of the e-commerce boom in the pandemic, Shopify has adopted a more measured approach to growth. This strategy has paid off, as evidenced by the company’s net income of $828 million, an increase from $718 million the previous year. When adjusted for the impact of equity investments, net income was $344 million, approximately double that of the prior year’s $176 million.

Shopify also improved its free cash flow, which rose to $421 million from $276 million, exceeding the analysts’ projection of $345 million. The free-cash-flow margin improved to 19% from 16% in the year-ago quarter, reflecting better operational efficiency.

Shopify CFO Jeff Hoffmeister highlighted the company’s resilience and strategic balance in his statement: “These results demonstrate the durability of our business, our multiple avenues for growth and continued discipline of balancing both future growth investment and operational leverage.”

This performance underscores Shopify’s ongoing success in the e-commerce space, showing that even as the world adjusts to post-pandemic norms, the company continues to scale up its operations while maintaining a focus on profitability and cash flow management.

Price Action: Shopify closed today’s trading session up over 21% at $108.92. The name is up 40% year-to-date and 66% year-over-year.

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