Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, recently shared his perspective on the influence of the U.S. presidential election on the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin (BTC).
Hayes argues that the election’s outcome holds little sway over Bitcoin’s trajectory, given that both candidates, regardless of their political affiliations, are likely to adhere to economic policies driven by the constraints of U.S. debt dynamics and the ambition to maintain global military dominance.
“Whoever wins doesn’t really matter,” Hayes stated, emphasizing that the fundamental economic policies of the U.S. are predetermined by these overarching financial realities. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s value might remain “unchanged” or experience a slight dip under a Kamala Harris administration, but he insists this is not due to specific policies by either candidate. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, during their respective times in office, have not significantly impacted the cryptocurrency space positively.
Hayes criticizes the notion that any political figure could be inherently pro-Bitcoin, especially referencing Trump’s tenure. “Trump was in office for four years – he did nothing for crypto,” Hayes remarked, debunking the idea that Trump’s apparent support for Bitcoin was anything more than political rhetoric aimed at garnering voter support and financial backing. He extends this skepticism to Harris, noting her lack of significant action towards cryptocurrency during her time in office.
Moreover, Hayes highlights the autonomy of regulatory agencies from political influence, suggesting that these bodies have their own agendas which often do not align with political promises or the needs of the cryptocurrency sector. He warns against the folly of placing faith in campaign promises concerning cryptocurrencies, viewing them as mere tactics to win votes.
Looking ahead to 2025, Hayes shifts focus from political events to macroeconomic trends. He stresses that the future of Bitcoin and perhaps the broader financial markets will be more influenced by monetary policies globally.
“The question is how much money is the United States going to print, how much is China going to print, how much is Japan going to print, how much is the Euro zone going to print? Those four blocs are the most important,” he explained. This perspective underscores his view that Bitcoin’s value and relevance will be shaped more by global monetary policies than by the political leadership in the U.S.
Hayes advises investors to avoid the temptation of trading Bitcoin based on election results, labeling such an approach as “a fool’s errand.” He encourages a broader view, focusing on how world governments manage their economies, particularly through monetary expansion, which he believes will have a more direct and significant impact on Bitcoin’s market performance in the future.
Price Action: As of press time, BTC is changing hands at $69,538, up about 3% intraday.
h/t TheStreet
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