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Old 12-23-2007, 03:32 PM
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Dry Bulk Shipping III

Valuations.
I thought I would compare the valuations of the dry bulk shippers that I follow. I wanted to see how the book values of these companies compared with their market values, so I started with the 3 Q reports for each company, took the book value of their vessels, then marked up their vessels to market.

I used $1000/dwt as the initial value, then adjusted up or down depending on the average age of the fleet. I did not adjust for the availability of the ships. So this valuation assumes that all vessels would be immediately available free of charter. Of course this isn't accurate. But it does give some basis for comparison. What I really wanted to see was the gap between book NAV / share and mkt value / share.

Well I am having trouble pasting in the table from Excel...

Last edited by dn4911; 12-23-2007 at 03:33 PM. Reason: deleted table, did not format correctly

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Old 12-23-2007, 03:50 PM
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Smile Table

Code:
Stock    NAV/Sh    Mkt Val/Sh   Closing Price 12/21/07

DRYS     19.42       91.38          71
GNK      17.21       60.76          53
EXM      18.24       52.68          40.5
EGLE     10.35       22.04          26
DSX      5.70        31.94          29
PRGN     21.57       25.48          18.5
QMAR     8.23        45.52          23
What this shows is the relationship between the debt these companies have, the book value of their vessels, and the mkt. value. The biggest gap between NAV and Mkt is Drys. It's ships have greatly appreciated in value since aquisition and its debt is relatively low.

While QMAR has a big gap, its vessels are probably overstated by about 50% because all are subject to charters that will not expire for a number of years.

The DRYS and EXM vessels will all come due within the next year or two.

If I can figure out how to upload an excel file I will post the entire sheet, which shows more graphically the mark up in vessel value v. book value.

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Old 12-24-2007, 01:28 PM
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Australian Port Congestion

SSY News

24-12-2007 The SSY Australian Coal Port Congestion Index finished the year at 14.8 days. This compares with an average of close to 17 days for the year and an average of around 8 days for 2006. According to local agents, over 70 Panamaxes and over 40 Capesizes are currently waiting to berth off the country’s coal and iron ore ports.

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Old 12-27-2007, 04:21 PM
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News

12/22

Big bulk carriers prioritised

To assist owners with the challenges of building and operating ships for the booming bulk cargo trades, DNV recently conducted a half-day seminar in Hong Kong on bulk carrier construction and operation.

This seminar was conducted in conjunction with the year of the fiftieth anniversary of the Hong Kong Shipowners Association. ''We are seeing a surge in new orders and also the demands by terminals for quick loading of bulk ships.

These challenges are very real for the bulk carrier industry and we recognize that class must be proactive in providing practical solutions,'' said Ulf T. Freudendahl, Business Director - Bulk Carriers, DNV Maritime. Hong Kong Shipowners Association Managing Director, Arthur Bowring, agreed that the bulk carrier arena was in need of industry attention, pointing out that congestion in bulk load ports meant that some ships were blocked from trading, or else subject to pressure for faster loading.

He added that many of the new bulk carriers are being ordered by his association members. DNV is currently conducting plan approval for CSR- compliant bulk carriers, from handysize to capesize, for construction in China, India, South Korea and Vietnam. Mr Swerke Manager of DNV Maritime Service Centre in Shanghai said that new rule requirements introduce a radical shift towards more computerisation of the rule formulations and structural assessment.

For intensively prepared shipbuilder, the basic hull drawings approval can be completed in two to three weeks. Bjorn K. Haugland summarised the day's events, pointing out that, ''Owners need help with their ships in operation.
With all the new building capacity coming on line, we also need to support the shipyards, not only implementing the new rules, but really taking responsibility to provide guidance.''

DNV is involved in bulk carrier projects in many Chinese yards, ranging from handysize, through handymax, panamax, capesize and also ore carriers, including the world's largest, the 388,000 dwt ore carriers in Bohai Shipyard for BW Shipping.

Source: DNV
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Old 12-27-2007, 04:29 PM
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12/27

With demand strong, iron ore industry sees 2008 production rising

Five years ago, Minnesota's iron ore industry was in a tailspin. Two taconite plants were shut down because of financial distress, and U.S. Steel even put up for sale its Minntac mine, North America's largest taconite producer.

The outlook is far brighter headed into 2008. Industry consolidation has made it stronger and less subject to economic swings. And surging worldwide demand for iron ore has turned ore properties into valuable assets.

The taconite mining outlook "probably hasn't looked this good in a long time," said Craig Pagel, president of the Iron Mining Association of Minnesota trade group. "There's been so much change, not just in the last five years, but even in the last couple," said Peter Kakela, a Michigan State University professor who tracks the iron ore industry.

"You now have companies like Essar Steel buying steel producers like Algoma and a mini mill company like Steel Dynamics coming in to do an iron nugget plant. The whole groundwork has changed." Taconite production for 2007 is expected to come in around 37.6 million tons of pellets, said Robert Wagstrom, Minnesota Department of Revenue Minerals Tax Office engineering specialist.

That's down slightly from 38.9 million tons in 2006. The decline was due in part to a water freeze-up at Hibbing Taconite early this year that shut down the facility for about a month and cost that plant hundreds of thousands of production tons. Production for 2008 is projected to increase to about 38.5 million tons, Wagstrom said.

Plant owners are projecting that all six facilities will operate at or beyond designed capacity, Pagel said. And the industry will get a boost in the first quarter when Cleveland-Cliffs' Northshore Mining's processing plant in Silver Bay restarts idled lines, adding 800,000 tons to its annual capacity. One good sign is "a lot of capital investment in Northern Minnesota," Pagel said.

He pointed out examples of new equipment or refurbishing including Northshore Mining's purchase of a new shovel, Minntac's modernization of one taconite line, and ArcelorMittal's opening of an open pit mine near McKinley. About 4,000 people work at Iron Range taconite mines. About another 14,000 work in spinoff jobs dependent on the mines.

Explosive economic growth in countries such as China and India is driving demand for steel for bridges, roads, buildings, pipe, automobiles and appliances. The price of Iron Range ore pellets has jumped from just above $31 several years ago to about $78 today, Kakela said.

"I think 2008 is going to be a good, solid year," Kakela said. Domestic demand "is good and global demand is very good. Things are slowing down in Michigan as far as car production and parts, but the industry is recession-proof much more than it was in the past." Labor will be a key issue in 2008.

Contracts between the companies and Steelworkers at all the plants expire Sept. 1. Steelworkers leaders were in Pittsburgh recently to begin laying out issues and negotiation strategy. With steel companies reporting record revenues over the past two years, Steelworkers want to share in the good times.

However, Bratulich said Steelworkers hope to avoid a strike. "We're not looking for a labor dispute," said Bob Bratulich, United Steelworkers District 11 president. "How the companies behave in bargaining will determine whether we have a fight or not. It's not like any of them are in poverty. Nobody can claim they're poor in this bargaining."

Source: Bemidji Pioneer
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