01/03
Persian Gulf Oil-Tanker Rates May Fall on Vessel Supply Surplus
The cost of shipping Middle East crude to Asia, the world's busiest market for supertankers, may fall after a lull in demand over the year-end left a surplus of ships.
The list of ships competing for cargoes is ''a bit long'' and the ''trend is down'' in rental rates, Per Mansson, a broker at Nor Ocean Stockholm AB, said in an e-mailed note today. The surplus of vessels emerged following a slowdown in demand during year-end vacations, he said.
Ship-rental rates rose the most in at least 16 years in November and extended their gains in December after members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries produced record amounts of crude October and November.
Japanese refineries may also have hired extra ships to replenish crude inventories that, according to the International Energy Agency, were near their lowest for at least 20 years. No new vessel bookings were reported by shipbrokers today.
Rental rates climbed 0.7 percent to 275 Worldscale points on Dec. 31, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Worldscale points are a percentage of a nominal rate, or flat rate, for more than 320,000 specific routes. Flat rates for every voyage, quoted in U.S. dollars a ton, are revised annually by the Worldscale Association in London to reflect changing fuel costs, port tariffs and exchange rates.
Each flat rate assessment gives owners and oil companies a starting point for negotiating hire rates without having to calculate the value of each deal from scratch. At 275 Worldscale points, owners of double-hulled very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, can earn about $251,357 a day on a 39- day round trip from Saudi Arabia to South Korea, based on a formula by R.S. Platou, an Oslo-based shipbroker, and Bloomberg marine fuel prices.
Hire Rates
Hire rates may halt declines when ''two or three'' oil companies seek to hire tankers at the same time, Mansson said.
Frontline Ltd., the world's biggest VLCC operator, said Nov. 15 it needs $30,000 a day to break even on each of its supertankers. Companies' break-even levels depend on their finance arrangements and fuel-hedging strategies.
Bookings for VLCCs sailing from the Middle East to Asia account for 47 percent of global demand for the carriers, according to New York-based McQuilling Brokerage Partners LLP. Shipments to the U.S. and Caribbean, the second-biggest market, account for 14 percent of demand for supertankers.
Source: Bloomberg