ETFC- Bull or Bear???

DUBB · #1 (**permalink**) 03-19-2008, 07:00 PM

Looking for a little insight on ETFC, if i should hold it in hopes of it doubling or cut and run.. bought @ 3.32

ron · #2 (**permalink**) 03-20-2008, 02:04 AM

Dubb, welcome to WSP......

If ETFC trade is only a scalp play, personally - I'd take the profit and move on to the next trade. Particularly, under current market conditions. However, if you are considering a long term scenario, with hopes of ticker doubling from current levels...then, Etrade's $11.8 billion in home equity loans deserves priority ; since we don't know exactly - how much out of entire $11.8 billion consists of non-performing loans?!

We know 07's non-performing loans did already post close to half a billion dollars and that number is likely to rise into '08. We also know, they have sold $3 billion in loans for $0.30 cents on the dollar based only on predictions.....(they could easily lose $3-$4 billion in their loan portfolio)

Yes, the brokerage side of the biz is very profitable, they added 43K accounts in Feb versus 16K n January. However, the problem with that is that.... they have to maintain a minimum capitalization in order to stay in business. Right now we don't know - if currently they have that kind of capitalization.

shadow · #3 (**permalink**) 03-26-2008, 07:31 PM

Dubb, you broke above the resistance line of 3.55 three days ago. This will now become your support line. On the day of the breakout. The volume was 43% lower than average volume.

The most reliable breakouts are accompanied by increased volume. With the price only rising 6.77% since the breakout, the breakout is questionable.

shadow · #4 (**permalink**) 03-30-2008, 03:59 PM

As it stands. You still are showing the same parameters that I mentioned above from my first post, As far as resistance and support.

There are some other factors that are beginning to come into the picture .. There have been three dark candles, which means your close has been less than your open,for the past three days

Also, you have penetrated the 20 day moving average of the Bollinger band. the middle band to the down side.
Now, all
of The above does not mean that you will continue to move down, but it is something to be aware of.

The above information comes from a daily chart.