Tim Duy

Tim Duy is the Director of Undergraduate Studies of the Department of Economics at the University of Oregon and the Director of the Oregon Economic Forum.

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Tim Duy's Latest Articles | 39

Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments

Mar 8, 2010| 

Calculated Risk directed us to a lesser know economic indicator, real personal income less transfer payments, a measure intended to strip out some of the impact... Read »

Is the Fed Eager to Dismiss Deflationary Pressures?

Mar 2, 2010| 

My attention this morning was drawn to the inflation numbers in the January Personal Income and Spending release, specifically the recent downward trend in core... Read »

Fed Watch: Devil’s Advocate

Feb 4, 2010| 

Commentators, including myself, have been critical of a Federal Reserve policy stance that appears to place uncertain inflation concerns ahead of a very real unemployment... Read »

Fed Watch: Dissent

Jan 28, 2010| 

The FOMC statement contained a mini-bombshell, the dissent of Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig. I am skeptical, however, that this dissent is a significant... Read »

It’s Not About Interest Rates Yet

Jan 15, 2010| 1

Incoming data continue to support expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates at rock bottom levels for the foreseeable future – likely into 2011.... Read »

Fed Watch: Out of the Gate with a Bang

Jan 5, 2010| 

If you were looking for a final, cataclysmic collapse of the US economy, you remain disappointed. To be sure, the fallout from the financial crisis is severe,... Read »

Why Christmas Eve?

Dec 29, 2009| 

One would think that policymakers would treat the day before Christmas as sacrosanct, if not for the sake of their employees, but to avoid the endless conspiracy... Read »

Fed Watch: Cyclical and Structural Dynamics

Dec 7, 2009| 

For several months, I have been telling stories that decompose US economic activity into what I think of as cyclical and structural dynamics. I believe the distinction... Read »

Fed Watch: Bubbles and Policy

Dec 3, 2009| 

The Wall Street Journal carried a front page article today detailing changing views at the Federal Reserve regarding the policy treatment of emerging bubbles of... Read »

Ahead of Black Friday

Nov 25, 2009| 1

We are embarking once again into that time of the year when reporters around the world become entranced and enthralled with that orgy of consumerism that defines... Read »