Scott Sumner
Scott Sumner's Latest Articles | 314
Warren Buffett Faces a 90% Plus Tax Rate
I actually don’t know the exact tax rate, but from what I can tell it’s probably well in excess of 90%. Unfortunately, Warren Buffett seems to know little... Read »
A Missed Opportunity
It was even worse than I expected. I expected one good thing (an employer-side payroll tax cut) and lots of ineffective demand stimulus measures. The actual... Read »
The Fed Needs to Stop Trying to Reduce Interest Rates
Here are two possible messages from the upcoming September Fed meeting: 1. We are coming out of this meeting with all guns blazing. We will cut the interest... Read »
The End of History: Why the Fed Will Fail
In 1989 Francis Fukuyama made a bold prediction. The world would become increasing democratic and market-oriented. Other political models would gradually wither... Read »
The Sad End of Monetarism
Two years ago Allan Meltzer warned that the Fed’s policies would lead to high inflation. Paul Krugman and I told him he was wrong. In a new article in the... Read »
What Do We Know About Fed Announcements and Markets? Much More Than You’d Think
Justin Wolfers just sent me the following tweet from Alex Tabarrok: Hypothesis: In past 48 hours there is some time frame such that combination of short and long... Read »
Anatomy of a Confused Market
Cameron sent me this valuable data, which I will use to analyze the market reaction to Tuesday’s Fed announcement: The S&P : http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP%3A.INX&hl=en Zoom... Read »
Why the Fed’s Policy Won’t Lead to High Inflation
Stephen Williamson has an excellent observation about the Fed’s new commitment to hold rates near zero for 2 years: Further, it seems the outcome the Fed would... Read »
Message to the ECB: We Told You So
Quasi-monetarists and Keynesians both warned the ECB that it was making a mistake by raising interest rates in response to commodity inflation, even as NGDP expectations... Read »
What Are the Markets Telling Us About Fed Transparency?
When the Fed makes an important announcement at 2:15, one often sees the DJIA shoot up or down by a few hundred points, and then level off. This time around... Read »







