James Picerno
James Picerno's Latest Articles | 739
Jobless Claims Fell Sharply Last Week
Suddenly the sun came out… again. New filings for jobless benefits dropped a hefty 27,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 365,000. It appears that the downward... Read »
A New Old Explanation for Recessions & Financial Crises
Edward Conard, a retired executive of Bain Capital and a major donor to Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign, tells us that the precipitating cause of the 2008... Read »
ADP Reports Sharply Slower Job Growth In April
The April update of the ADP Employment Report is a clear signal for keeping expectations low for Friday’s influential payrolls report from the U.S. Labor Department.... Read »
Manufacturing Activity Strengthens In April
The first major economic report for April brings encouraging news. Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded last month, the Institute for Supply Management... Read »
Is Personal Income Growth (Finally) Stabilizing?
For the second month in a row, personal disposable income (DPI) grew at a faster rate, advancing 0.4% in March—the best pace so far this year, according to today’s... Read »
Three Regional Fed Surveys Report Slower Growth In April
April’s economic activity appears mixed, according to business surveys published by four regional Fed banks. Although all four updates reflect continued growth,... Read »
Has The Labor Market Hit A Wall… Again?
Weekly claims for new unemployment benefits are in a holding pattern these days. But holding for what? For the third straight week, new claims hovered at just under... Read »
Parsing the Finer Points of “Reckless” Behavior for Monetary Policy
The word “reckless” is defined as acts that are irresponsible, wild, thoughtless, and the byproduct of someone who is utterly unconcerned about the consequences... Read »
March Durable Goods Orders Drop Sharply
The margin of safety for durable goods orders is wearing thin. This series isn’t forecasting a recession, at least not yet, but it’s now the closest... Read »
What Happened to Peak Oil?
Fears that the world is running short of oil aren’t going away, but judging by the latest figures on global oil production there’s no sign that the peak... Read »







