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Accrued Interest

Accrued Interest provides unique, expert insight to developments in the U.S. bond market. It is written by an anonymous professional working in the field.

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Accrued Interest's Latest Articles | 118

Is this Recession Really Different from Past Recessions?

Jan 11, 2010| 

Is it really different this time? In other words, is this recession really different from past recessions? I argue only in terms of magnitude. It was a bad recession,... Read »

2010 Economic Growth Forecast

Dec 30, 2009| 

Well, its forecast time. I’m going to do this over the course of four posts, I think. Maybe more. This first post is going to focus on what I see for general... Read »

Debt Wars Episode II: Attack of the Traders

Dec 15, 2009| 

My post from last week on debt generated some conversation about leverage and the value of arbitrage-free prices. Basically I’m arguing that if leverage (a.k.a.... Read »

Debt: How Am I to Know the Good Side from the Bad?

Dec 10, 2009| 2

I was listening to Megan McArdle on the EconTalk podcast the other day. (By the way, I recommend the EconTalk series for any real economics wonk. The subject matter... Read »

Extreme Measures are Warranted… for Now

Dec 8, 2009| 

Ben Bernanke told us yesterday that inflation “could move lower from here,” obviously suggesting that any Fed tightening is a long way off. These comments... Read »

The Bank Stress Tests Worked!

Dec 3, 2009| 1

I’ve said it before and gotten all sorts of criticism, but the simple fact is that the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program, a.k.a. the bank stress tests,... Read »

Holy Liquidity Trap Batman!

Nov 19, 2009| 

We’ve been talking a lot about the Fed lately so I thought I’d share my version of the Taylor Rule calculation. I’ve built this myself so it might... Read »

Warning: The Dollar Weak Crowd is Too Confident

Nov 17, 2009| 

A warning to all you exposed to the dollar carry trade, either directly or indirectly. A group which includes: Anyone borrowing in USD to buy short-term assets... Read »

Fed on Employment: Well, Forget the Heavy Equipment

Nov 10, 2009| 

The other day I speculated that the Fed was paying less attention to employment than most marketeers seem to think. Specifically, I question whether the Fed will... Read »

Should We Take the Fed at Their Word?

Nov 7, 2009| 

On Wednesday I posted a poll on when the Fed would make its first hike. So far about half of the responses have been “After September 2010″ with the... Read »

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