The week ahead will be dominated by the Treasury market (the T. plans to auction $37B three-yrs. Tuesday; $23B in 10-yrs. Wednesday, and $15B in 30-yrs. Thursday) and greenback as much as the Fed’s two-day policy meeting midweek. Investors will watch the central banks’ meeting for clues about how it views the economy and whether the monetary entity will continue programs (such as TALF) aimed at relieving the credit crunch and the recession. Fed governors will also consider whether to extend or let the Fed’s plan to purchase up to $300 billion in U.S. Treasuries expire in mid-September as scheduled. Interest-rate policy meanwhile, is expected to remain unchanged.
This week will also have a heavy calendar of economic reports that includes the NFIB small business survey due for release Tuesday. International trade and the federal budget are released Wednesday. On Thursday, business inventories, import prices, and weekly jobless claims will be reported in addition to retail sales. Consumer prices[CPI] for July (a key measure of inflation and expected to be flat), industrial production and Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment are released Friday. This week also includes a few major earnings reports from big-name retailers ; starting with Macy’s (NYSE:M) on Wednesday; Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Kohl’s (NYSE:KSS) and Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN), Thursday; and J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP) on Friday.
Some more highlights from MW’s Stacey Delo.