Big Up Move

By May 25, 2012, 6:49 AM Author's Blog  

I hold by the view of a final move up to the 1500s, likely getting close to or at new highs, a triple top of the 1550-ish level hit in 2000 and 2007. I now see other pundits joining in.

Carl Futia is out with one of his bullish predictions: Big Up Move Ahead. His target is the high 1400s. The following chart shows the market bottoming at a confluence of levels – bouncing off the 1292 support level, hitting the lower trendline, and remaining above the 200 DMA – and having run about the same time in correction as the prior major correction:

Big Up Move

(click to enlarge)

All About Trends also gave a Long Side Trade Trigger Alert this morning in some specific ETFs, and is expecting the same for the S&P, given the retest of the 1292-1296 level and bounce off it.

A lot of other wave bloggers report a break in the down channel, which is causing them to hustle into alt counts. Easier just to see the downtrend as ended. We shal see over the next few trading days.

Prechter has released his recent Elliott Wave Financial Forecast for Club EWI members for free. It is of course über bearish, giving a plethora of reasons for a coming major decline. It is certainly valuable to peruse, particularly around the European contagion echoing history both in the 1930s and the 1830s, the first Great Depression in the then-new US. The EWFF makes a nice comparison between how Biddle’s Bank of the United States and the Bank of England tried to stem a tide of bank failures between 1835 and 1839 and the Fed’s similar efforts today. They both gave up in 1839, and we had a severe drop into 1842.

Where I see the major difference to their view is the Euro contagion today is first leading to capital flight to the US, which is showing up in bank runs in Greece, Spain and Portugal; and a rise in Treasuries with the ten-year yield getting down towards 1.7%. This capital fight to US assets should spill over into equities, hence help drive a final run up in stocks.

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