Trade Price Levels, Not Opinions in Volatile Times

By May 23, 2012, 7:58 AM Author's Blog  

Markets are getting some downside follow-through after yesterday’s late reversal. The S&P rallied to Resistance 2 before starting to fail at 1329 (SPY’s hit that $132.90-133.20 area).

Overseas markets are all in the red as the Euro remains pressured and commodities continue their downward spiral. Futures are down 10 handles or so bringing us back to some pivot low areas that we need to watch closely.

S&P support is 1304-1306 (about where we are opening). A nice trade would be a good snap back from here in first 30 minutes. Next support is the pivot low of 1291-1295 (pivot low from Friday). A 30-60 minute or daily close below and then perhaps we see 200day, which stands at 1279.

Timing an oversold bounce is always tricky as some don’t want to leave early, or short early. So evaluate how you handled it!

Google’s (GOOG) chart is looking a lot worse. That two day harsh move after Facebook created a very ugly chart. The stock is hovering near 200day. Some Traders will short that area if we break and close below it. $593-$596 is that zone. If you think you are in it “long term” losing the 200day is not good.

Amazon (AMZN) stock lost the bullish nature as it broke into the earnings gap. Now looks like it wants to fill more of it’s gap. $212.81 is the pivot to trade against as the next support doesn’t really come in till $203-205.

Baidu (BIDU) has been an avoid since 4/23 especially after it had the downside continuation after breaking $129.

Priceline (PCLN) was a nice short after earnings down to 100 day. I think it’s a better avoid now.

LinkedIn (LNKD) is still trying to hang around after reversing on Monday. It needs time.

Apple (AAPL) gave us nice trades to the short side since the $620 break down, then gave a nice buy set up Monday as it held it’s 100day. It failed at the downtrend that’s been controlling it. See if it can hold higher. For it to continue the last few days of relative strength, it should hold $546-552. Look today to see if it can go positive. If that area doesn’t hold, just continue to trade as a cash flow vehicle until we see a better market.

Facebook (FB) continues to bleed as it was a historic blunder. Seems like the world is full of them these days. Yesterday we had a nice cash flow trade before it failed. Look for the same set up today. $28 should be worth a look. Need to see if it’s a worth a trade.

Casinos gave us a day and half long and failed, take trades because they are still weak.

Banks showed some strength yesterday, but they were so battered and bruised. I don’t think it was anything more than a dead cat bounce. I guess see if any of them can go green today.

Gold (GLD) broke the $153-154 area that I said was important for short term composure. These metals are weak. A close below $148.60 and a bigger more macro level is down at $140-$141.

Take trades in dangerous times. Hold cash in dangerous times. Use levels, not opinions.

The IBD Big Picture went back to Correction Mode when we broke 1390 around May 4th- coincidentally when the Elections in France and Greece changed the complexion of the course in Europe. Time the markets. Four trillion dollars were lost in global equities in May, there’s no need to sit in that mess.

Disclosure: Scott Redler is long AAPL. Short SPY, QQQ.

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SPY197.79  chart-0.68  chart -0.34%
GOOG645.44  chart+3.97  chart +0.62%
AAPL111.31  chart+0.53  chart +0.48%
TSLA241.46  chart-4.69  chart -1.91%
TWTR27.62  chart-0.53  chart -1.88%
BBRY6.785  chart+0.180  chart +2.73%
NFLX108.33  chart-2.92  chart -2.62%
FB92.80  chart-1.21  chart -1.29%

Nikkei18322.98  chart+136.88  chart +0.75%
UK6350.01  chart+23.85  chart +0.38%
France4684.28  chart+23.64  chart +0.51%
Germany9992.58  chart+89.75  chart +0.91%

EUR / USD1.1232  chart-0.0037  chart -0.33%
GBP / USD1.5291  chart+0.0060  chart +0.39%
CAD / USD0.7682  chart+0.0009  chart +0.12%
AUD / USD0.7205  chart+0.0043  chart +0.60%

Gold Fut1133.20  chart+1.20  chart +0.11%
Oil Fut40.94  chart-0.20  chart -0.49%