German Data Lifts Futures, Takes Away Easy Trade

Markets never want to give the “easy” set-up. Most traders were hoping for a gap down to buy, and some for a gap down to cover remaining shorts. We closed below the 1340 level in the S&P yesterday, and that seems a bit more like a trap for now, but we will see how we trade in the first 30-60 minutes. Yesterday was a tricky day as we were mildly oversold but not extreme. Stocks seem have been beaten enough to play for an oversold bounce, but were not turning up intraday.

Today the futures are pointing to a higher open, as I write we are up 7-9 handles. Lately, shorting down opens has not worked, the same as buying up opens. So give it some time for the trade to pain out in the first 30-60 minutes, see if stocks act well if indices continue to push in the first 30 minutes or lag. Also see if they bring the indices in, whether stocks act well to then enter for a oversold bounce type trade!

S&P resistance at 1343-1347, the recent pivot low, will be the first obstacle. The next area is 1348-1352, and big resistance that contained last week’s rally attempt is 1360-1363.

S&P support is yesterday’s low of 1336, the next level is a pretty big one at 1318-1322, and then the measured move of the Head & Shoulders top is down at the 1295-1305 area.

See how the banks react to Jamie Dimon’s JP Morgan shareholders meeting. JPM seems beaten enough to buy for a scalp long and a longer term trade.

Some high beta names were mixed yesterday.

Apple (AAPL) was weak see if it holds up or they fade the open. If it goes negative, the real test will be $555-557.

Gold (GLD) also keeps heading lower. Yesterday’s pivot low is $151, then Major support is back from December 29th at $148.27. It’s hard to short here, but buying hasn’t worked.

Groupon (GRPN) posted sharp gains yesterday ahead of its earnings results, and accelerated those gains after the report, in which they beat on the top and bottom lines. GRPN was up 18% yesterday, and has added more than 25% after-hours. Zynga (ZNGA) has also perked up based on the GRPN results and upcoming Facebook IPO. The stock is up almost 6.5% pre-market.

Disclosure: Scott Redler is long SPY. Short AAPL ($565-567 will be my stop or I will add if it shows relative weakness)

About Scott Redler 367 Articles

Scott Redler is the Chief Strategic Officer of T3 Live. He develops all trading strategies for the service and acts as the face of T3 Live. Mr. Redler focuses on thorough preparation and discipline as a trader.

Mr. Redler has been trading equities for more than 10 years and has more recently received widespread recognition from the financial community for his insightful, pragmatic approach. He began his career as a broker and venture capitalist where he was able to facilitate relationships that led him into trading. Beginning his trading career at Broadway Trading in 1999, Mr. Redler moved on with Marc Sperling to Sperling Enterprises, LLC after establishing himself as one of the best young traders in the firm. As a manager at Sperling Enterprises, continued to trade actively while working closely with all traders in the firm to dramatically increase performance.

Mr. Redler has participated in more than 30 triathlons and one IronMan, exhibiting a work ethic that also defines his trading. His vast knowledge and meticulous attention to detail has led to regular appearances on CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg, and he is a regular contributor to Minyanville and Forbes’ Intelligent Investing blog. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal and Investor's Business Daily, among other publications.

Scott received a B.B.A. in Marketing/Finance from the State University of New York at Albany, graduating Magna Cum Laude from Albany's School of Business.

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