New Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fall

With today’s decent number for unemployment claims — claims fell to 366,000 and are finally below the breakeven point for job creation — it’s worth thinking about how long it might take for employment to recover. Calculated Risk calculates how long it will take to reach 8% by November 2012 under various scenarios:

I think the participation rate will be in the 64.0% to 64.5% range next November. That would mean the economy would need to add somewhere between 167,000 and 260,000 jobs per month. The bottom end of that range seems possible with sluggish growth, but the top end is less likely.

This is very sensitive to the participation rate. If the economy adds 167,000 jobs per month next year, and the participation rate increases to 64.5%, the unemployment rate would be at 8.7%. So 8% is possible, but it seems unlikely unless growth picks up.

And even at the optimistic rate of job creation, we’d only be at 8% a year from now.

Note also that the claims number is clouded by uncertainty over seasonal adjustment procedures, so it’s not certain that we are getting an accurate read on progress on employment. But even if it is accurate, even if we are finally headed back up the hill, as these graphs show there’s still a long, long climb ahead of us:

About Mark Thoma 243 Articles

Affiliation: University of Oregon

Mark Thoma is a member of the Economics Department at the University of Oregon. He joined the UO faculty in 1987 and served as head of the Economics Department for five years. His research examines the effects that changes in monetary policy have on inflation, output, unemployment, interest rates and other macroeconomic variables with a focus on asymmetries in the response of these variables to policy changes, and on changes in the relationship between policy and the economy over time. He has also conducted research in other areas such as the relationship between the political party in power, and macroeconomic outcomes and using macroeconomic tools to predict transportation flows. He received his doctorate from Washington State University.

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