Recent Stimulus Will Hurt the Fed’s Credibility – Plosser

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser voted against Operation Twist — the recent attempt for the Fed to help the economy — because:

“The actions taken in August and September tend to undermine the Fed’s credibility by giving the impression that we think such policies can have a major impact on the speed of the recovery. It is my assessment that they will not,” … “We should not take certain actions simply because we can.”

“If we act as if the Fed has the ability to solve all our economic problems, the credibility of the institution is undermined,” Plosser said. “The loss of that credibility and confidence could be costly to the economy because it will make it much harder for the Fed to implement effective monetary policy in the future,” he said.

He certainly isn’t acting like “the Fed has the ability to solve all our economic problems,” (and two other Fed officials dissented along with him). In addition, the Fed officials who voted for this action have been careful to say this won’t, in fact, solve all of our problems. They’ve said it can help modestly, and given the state of the economy even modest help is vary valuable, but they have not implied this will suddenly and magically fix our problems. So I really don’t see how this action undermines credibility. Fed officials have been clear this is no magic bullet, but they think it could help some and things are so bad — and the threat of inflation so low — that they feel compelled to try.

But from Plosser’s point of view, the Fed can’t do much at all at this point, and the fear of inflation down the road trumps concerns about unemployment now. Plus, the Fed can’t do anything about unemployment anyway:

“I am skeptical that this will do much to spur businesses to hire or consumers to spend, given the ongoing structural adjustments occurring in the economy and the uncertainties posed by the fiscal challenges both here and abroad,” Plosser said. Meanwhile, “we should be cautious and vigilant that our previous accommodative policies do not translate into a steady rise in inflation over the medium term even while the unemployment rate remains elevated.”

He is saying that unemployment is largely structural (“given the ongoing structural adjustments”) even though it’s clear that a large part of it is cyclical, and that uncertainty over fiscal policy is holding the economy back even though bond yields show no sign of this whatsoever. Thus, in his view the structural problems combined with uncertainty are holding back employment, and there’s nothing the Fed can do about it.

Is he worried about inflation in the near term? No:

with many commodity prices now leveling off or falling, and inflation expectations relatively stable, inflation will moderate in the near-term

And why should we trust his forecasts in any case? He keeps seeing green shoots that aren’t there:

“I was expecting GDP growth in 2011 to be 3% to 3.5%. Now, I expect GDP growth to be less than 2% in 2011, but to gradually accelerate to around 3% in 2012.” He added “I do not believe the current data signal that we are on the precipice of a so-called double-dip recession.”

So he keeps expecting growth that never comes, and uses those expectations along with the excuse that it’s structural/uncertainty forestall policy action. What if his forecast for 3% growth in 2012 is as wrong as his previous forecast, and what if there is a double-dip? What if the unemployment problem is largely cyclical like most analysts say? What if, as many have concluded, uncertainty is not the problem? Is he really so certain about his forecasts and views about what’s holding the economy back given his track record? With near term inflation falling, why not at least try to do more? Why should inflation risk trump the risk of continued sluggish growth (which in and of itself alleviates inflation concerns if it happens)? Is somewhat higher inflation down the road — if it even happens — really more worrisome than a period of elevated unemployment?

And why should this action produce inflation in any case? Operation Twist doesn’t change the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, it changes the average duration of the assets the Fed holds. If the balance sheet doesn’t expand how, exactly, does that create inflation pressure to any significant degree? If there’s no inflation pressure, what is the real concern? It appears to be the credibility argument and the fact that unemployment can’t be helped — it’s structural/uncertainty — but as noted above the structural/uncertainty claim is easy to rebut, and the concerns over credibility ring hollow. So he might at least consider the possibility that he has this wrong.

For me, one of the most frustrating thing about policy over the last several years is the continued insistence from some Fed officials that good times are just around the corner so any action they take will be inflationary. They have been wrong again and again, yet the optimism about future growth — green shoots — remains. Like Paul Krugman, I have been warning about a slow recovery since at least 2008, and warning about seeing green shoots that aren’t there for almost as long, and it’s disappointing to see policymakers continue to use the promise of good times just ahead — especially policymakers who have been wrong again and again — along with the easily refuted claim that the problem is all uncertainty and structural issues as an excuse to stand against doing more to try to help the unemployed (however modestly).

About Mark Thoma 243 Articles

Affiliation: University of Oregon

Mark Thoma is a member of the Economics Department at the University of Oregon. He joined the UO faculty in 1987 and served as head of the Economics Department for five years. His research examines the effects that changes in monetary policy have on inflation, output, unemployment, interest rates and other macroeconomic variables with a focus on asymmetries in the response of these variables to policy changes, and on changes in the relationship between policy and the economy over time. He has also conducted research in other areas such as the relationship between the political party in power, and macroeconomic outcomes and using macroeconomic tools to predict transportation flows. He received his doctorate from Washington State University.

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