Empire Manufacturing Data Suggests Recession is Ending

NEW YORK FED— The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers were flat in July. The general business conditions index increased to a level close to zero, rising 9 points, to -0.6. The new orders index rose above zero for the first time in several months, and the shipments index also climbed into positive territory. The inventories index slipped to a record-low -36.5. The prices paid index rose above zero for the first time since November, while the prices received index held below zero. Employment indexes remained well below zero. Future indexes continued to be relatively optimistic about the six-month outlook, but were somewhat less buoyant than in June. The capital spending index fell several points, but remained above zero.

MP: The four-month increase of 37.7 points between March and July in the General (Current) Conditions Index is the largest increase over a four-month period since the 33.4 point increase between October 2001 and March 2002, which signalled the end of the 2001 recession.

About Mark J. Perry 262 Articles

Affiliation: University of Michigan

Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan.

He holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University in Washington, D.C. and an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota.

Since 1997, Professor Perry has been a member of the Board of Scholars for the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, a nonpartisan research and public policy institute in Michigan.

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1 Comment on Empire Manufacturing Data Suggests Recession is Ending

  1. Where can I go to find out what it is that the manufacturers are producing and selling? Or are they just making up slightly for the low inventories that are being restocked? Plus, how can you be optimistic when it says conditions were flat this month?

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