Reason to Be Concerned About the Market

It is a well known fact that an increasing percentage of daily trading volume in the equity markets is driven by high frequency traders. Whether you think that is a good or bad development is currently irrelevant. It is a reality.

That reality has clearly changed the nature of investing and assessing the markets.

How does one invest with a long term horizon when so much of the market is driven by short term traders? Very carefully.

Long term investing requires a solid understanding of fundamental analysis.  In the midst of that endeavor, though, investors might want to have an appreciation for technical analysis, which can be utilized across an array of time periods but is very often applied for shorter time periods.

Students of technical analysis will gain an appreciation for overbought and oversold conditions, along with a grasp of market psychology.

Have I lost you yet? I hope not. Let’s get a little more specific and look at an individual poll of active investors and why I think this poll may give investors reason to be concerned about current market levels.

Our Sense on Cents All-Star Laszlo Birinyi publishes a fabulous weekly poll at his site, Ticker Sense. As Laszlo highlights,

The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll is a survey of the web’s most prominent investment bloggers, asking “What is your outlook on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days?” Conducted on a weekly basis, the poll is sent to participants each Thursday, and the results are released on Ticker Sense each Monday. The goal of this poll is to gain a consensus view on the market from the top investment bloggers — a community that continues to grow as a valued source of investment insight. © Copyright 2011 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll

I would encourage readers interested in the markets to visit Laszlo’s site often. He is an All-Star for a reason. What does Laszlo’s most recently released Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll indicate? Why do I think people may want to be a little cautious about the market? Let’s navigate further as Laszlo publishes his July 5th Blogger Sentiment Poll,

Why would I be concerned? When the level of bearishness is so low, it is the equivalent of everybody moving to one side of a boat. You know what happens then, right?

About Larry Doyle 522 Articles

Larry Doyle embarked on his Wall Street career in 1983 as a mortgage-backed securities trader for The First Boston Corporation. He was involved in the growth and development of the secondary mortgage market from its near infancy.

After close to 7 years at First Boston, Larry joined Bear Stearns in early 1990 as a mortgage trader. In 1993, Larry was named a Senior Managing Director at the firm. He left Bear to join Union Bank of Switzerland in late 1996 as Head of Mortgage Trading.

In 1998, after 15 years of trading and precipitated by Swiss Bank’s takeover of UBS, Larry moved from trading to sales as a senior salesperson at Bank of America. His move into sales led him to the role as National Sales Manager for Securitized Products at JP Morgan Chase in 2000. He was integrally involved in developing the department, hiring 40 salespeople, and generating $300 million in sales revenue. He left JP Morgan in 2006.

Throughout his career, Larry eagerly engaged clients and colleagues. He has mentored dozens of junior colleagues, recruited at a number of colleges and universities, and interviewed hundreds. He has also had extensive public speaking experience. Additionally, Larry served as Chair of the Mortgage Trading Committee for the Public Securities Association (PSA) in the mid-90s.

Larry graduated Cum Laude, Phi Beta Kappa in 1983 from the College of the Holy Cross.

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