Helping this slow motion selloff has been the strength of the U.S. dollar – the almost perfect inverse correlation, while maddening, must be respected. The dollar is down a bit today, but the market is not responding in kind (i.e. it normally rallies). While this chart is delayed by a day (the dollar is under 75.80 today), one can see the obvious technical culprit holding the dollar back.
A move over this 100 day moving average would bode well for a continued move upwards in the greenback, and as long as recent patterns hold, not a great sign for the greater equity market. We can see when the dollar first approached the 50 day moving average about four weeks ago it had a handful of days it struggled to burst through before it finally did so. Would not be at all surprised to see a similar situation here at the 100 day.