I chuckle as I write the title for this commentary for the very simple reason that it is a line heard so often on the sales and trading desks on Wall Street. We can get a sample of “what the smart money is thinking and doing” from a very recent Bloomberg Poll. Be mindful that those polled represent a global random sampling of 1,263 Bloomberg subscribers.
Would you like to know what they think of the following?
1. Which national markets will offer investors the BEST and WORST opportunities over the next year?
2. What asset class will offer the BEST and WORST RETURNS over the next year?
3. What do those polled think of their regional economy, the U.S. economy, and the global economy?
4. Where will the U.S. dollar stand relative to the Euro three months from now?
5. How do these global investors intend on shifting their exposures across asset classes over the next six months? (I find this question to be particular interesting. The contrarian in me makes me want to take the opposite side of the extremes reflected by those polled.)
6. How will major market indices and specific commodities perform over the next six months?
7. What do those polled think of Goldman Sachs in terms of its reputation and its stock valuation?
8. What about Japan in terms of its ability to rebound from the earthquake of March 11th and its ability to escape deflation?
9. What about China and the status of its currency, the Chinese yuan?
10. How do those polled view the major Wall Street banks? Which single bank received an overall unfavorable rating? Which bank is viewed most favorably?
I like this poll for a number of reasons, including the fact that it is global in nature, it is representative of those who follow the markets, and it is a random sampling of over 300,000 individuals. The margin of error is less than 3%.