The National Association of Active Investment Managers released its weekly sentiment survey. The number reflects total equity exposure of participating investment managers. This week the average equity exposure fell slightly to 78.51%, down from 80.21% previously. If you look at the chart below you will see that market corrections generally coincide with a NAAIM reading of 80 or above. So we may be very near to a short-term market peak. Also, we are currently at the same level reached back in late April/early May 2010 right before the big market decline. As a contrary indicator, the NAAIM survey is signaling caution. This number fits nicely with the overly bullish sentiment number we saw in the AAII survey. It may be time for prudent investors to step away from Zimbabwe Ben’s punch bowl before the market experiences a major hangover. Good luck trading!
Here is the chart.