Two back to back off the wall figures in ADP. Usually the government’s monthly report comes in about 70-80K higher than ADP but November’s 92K in the ADP report was strangely much higher than the government report 2 days later, which came in below 40K. This time we have an off the charts figure of just under 300,000 in ADP. Obviously we have a lot of seasonal hiring in December but one would think this is adjusted away somehow. Almost all gains were in the service providing sector: +270K which would make sense in terms of a big jump in seasonal retail. whatever the case the expectation for Friday’s reports should go up but right now the relatiinship between ADP and government data seems more out of sync than normal. January should likewise be interesting as we see how many of these gains potentially fade away as some seasonal workers are let go. I thought the numbers this Friday would be positive to make up for a very strange November report, but no one is looking for 300Kish.
Affiliation: Hanna Capital, LLC
Mark Hanna is President and Owner of Hanna Capital, LLC, a registered investment advisory firm. Mark has been a follower of markets since the late 80s, with a focus on individual equities since the mid 90s. He has been a well known commentator in the financial blogosphere for the past 5 years, following a career in corpoporate finance and accounting. Mark attended the University of Michigan where he graduated with a degree in Economics.
As an avid reader, Market Montage is the personal blogging site for Mark to share his views on economics, markets, and the like. Occasional cynicism and wit shall be deployed in his postings.
Follow Mark on Twitter @fundmyfund.
Visit: Market Montage