With this evening’s 83-15 cloture vote, the Senate signaled it will pass President Obama’s Bush tax cut compromise tomorrow afternoon or evening depending upon how much of the 30 hours for debate is used. A top House staffer told me that one amendment on the estate tax will be considered when the House takes it up Wednesday afternoon or evening. No details were offered, but I would guess we’re talking about replacing the Lincoln-Kyl $5 million exemption and 35% top rate with the 2009 $3.5 million exemption and 45% top rate. I’d be surprised if the Senate accepted that, so the question is how long will it take Congress to reach a compromise. It’s a tough call. Most of my lobbyist friends expect the desire to get out of town will force final passage of the Senate version without the House amendment next weekend. I’m not so sure. Even if this Congress fails to reach a deal, the 112th Congress would pass the Senate version quickly after it convenes on January 5th.
Affiliation: Davis Capital Investment Ideas
Pete Davis advises Wall Street money managers on Washington policy developments that affect the financial markets. President of his own consulting firm since 1992, Davis Capital Investment Ideas, he draws on 11 years of experience as a Capitol Hill economist with the Joint Committee on Taxation (1974-1981), the Senate Budget Committee (1981-1983), and Senator Robert C. Byrd (1992). He worked in the House and Senate, and for Republicans and Democrats.
Davis brought the first computer policy model, the Treasury Individual Income Tax Model, to Capitol Hill in early 1974, when he became a revenue estimator on the Joint Committee on Taxation. He formulated the 1975 rebate, the earned income tax credit, the 1976 estate tax rates, the 1978 marginal tax rates, and the Roth-Kemp tax cut. He left Capitol Hill in 1983 for the Washington Research Office of Prudential-Bache Securities, where he advised investors for seven years.
Davis has long written a newsletter on the Washington-Wall Street connection for his clients; Capital Gains and Games is his first foray into the blogosphere.
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