Smallest Year over Year Change in Core Inflation Since 1957

People have been making the case that runaway inflation is just around the corner as a means of objecting to the Fed’s latest plan to try to help the economy, but there’s no sign of an inflation problem in the data:

Consumer Price Index Summary, BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis… As has frequently been the case in recent months, an increase in the energy index was the major factor in the … increase. …

The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in October, the third month in a row with no change. … Over the last 12 months, the index for all items less food and energy has risen 0.6 percent, the smallest 12-month increase in the history of the index, which dates to 1957. …

The smallest 12 month increase in the history of the index and people are worried about inflation? This might be a good time to repeat this chart from the SF Fed that I’ve posted here in the past:

When we look back at this episode, we are going to conclude that policymakers did too little, not too much, and what they did do mostly came too late.

About Mark Thoma 243 Articles

Affiliation: University of Oregon

Mark Thoma is a member of the Economics Department at the University of Oregon. He joined the UO faculty in 1987 and served as head of the Economics Department for five years. His research examines the effects that changes in monetary policy have on inflation, output, unemployment, interest rates and other macroeconomic variables with a focus on asymmetries in the response of these variables to policy changes, and on changes in the relationship between policy and the economy over time. He has also conducted research in other areas such as the relationship between the political party in power, and macroeconomic outcomes and using macroeconomic tools to predict transportation flows. He received his doctorate from Washington State University.

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