Experts warn that the next shoe to drop (some people are predicting September) is the commercial real-estate market whose fundamentals have grown dramatically weaker across most major property segments. If that scenario takes place, as it’s widely expected, it would certainly bring more misery to an already battered economy and prolong its recovery. But is CRE market totally frozen?. According to a Fortune article, while CMBS issuance are clearly frozen, as a result of facing maturity default/extension risks, there are a few signs out there indicating there is still CRE lending taking place.
From Fortune: Bank lending for commercial projects in the first half of 2009 is on track to hit about $25 billion, according to Matt Anderson at research firm Foresight Analytics in Oakland, Calif.
By way of comparison, commercial loan origination was at pace of $33 billion a quarter at the peak of the market.
The loan volume looks surprisingly healthy.