Analysis of the current global crisis have seen a domino-like sequence of events triggered by the U.S. sub-prime crisis in mid 2007. But structural data from several developed economies are beginning to show some signs of improvement. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD], the umbrella group for the top 30 developed nations, said Monday that Britain, France, Italy and China are showing signs that the downward trend in their economies is easing.
From Timesonline: The OECD….said its indicators, which are considered to be a bellwether for the global economic outlook, pointed to a strong slowdown in the OECD area, but said that Britain, France and Italy were showing “tentative signs” of a pause in the slowdown.
Canada, Japan, Germany and the US, are still in the midst of a “strong slowdown”.
The OECD’s leading indicator fell to 92.2 in March from 92.4 the previous month, giving a 9.5 point drop year-on-year. The indicator for major economies in the Group of Seven fell to 91.4 in March, from a revised 91.7 in February, 10.3 points lower than in March a year ago.
Central bankers from the G10 grouping of big economies also today said the global economy was near a turning point.
“We are, as far as growth is concerned, around the inflection point in the (economic) cycle,” said Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank, at a G10 meeting in Switzerland.
George Soros also sounded words of optimism. Speaking to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Soros said:
“The economic freefall has been stopped, the collapse of the financial system averted. National economic stimulus programs are starting to take effect. The downward dynamic is easing,” he said.
Soros also told the daily German paper that Asia would be the first region to pull out of the crisis and China was set to overtake the U.S. as the engine of world growth.