We are downgrading our recommendation on FTI Consulting (FCN) to Underperform from Neutral as the company trimmed its fiscal year 2010 outlook. The revised outlook is due to dramatic deceleration expected in Corporate Finance and Restructuring, less-than expected recovery in Merger and Acquisition activity and the struggling Technology segment.
Additionally, progress in its other segments such as Economic Consulting, Strategic Communications and Forensic and Litigation Consulting businesses are slower than expected. Further, the near-term outlook remains cautious as demand environment for practices remains uncertain and seizing up of business in Europe.
Our six-month target price of $31.00 per share equates to about 12.0X our earnings estimate for 2010, implying a negative total return of about 7.8% over that period.