Dollar Rallies as Consumer Confidence Hits Record Lows

In more than 40 years, we have never seen US consumers this pessimistic. The Conference Board’s report on consumer confidence fell to 37.7, the lowest level on record. The disappointing consumer confidence report will drag down risk appetite and drive investors into the safety of US dollars. The rally in the US dollar is a reflection of more panic selling and not optimism about US economy. On the heels of the report, we have already seen the EUR/USD and equities turn negative. We may not see a recovery in confidence Until job security is no longer a major concern. Unfortunately with headlines in national papers touting the 74k jobs axed in one day this morning, consumers will not turn optimistic anytime soon. The one silver lining in the report is that we have seen an increase in plans to buy automobiles within the next 6 months. Major discounts are enticing consumers to buy new cars. Looking ahead, discounts and incentives will be the only for businesses to push inventory. Fourth quarter GDP is due for release on Friday and weak consumer confidence supports the market’s belief that growth was the weakest in 26 years.

Earlier this morning, S&P/CaseShiller reported that house prices fell 18.18 percent in the month of November, the largest decline on record. Unfortunately house prices still have room to fall as the labor market remains weak and more inventory floods the market over the next few months.

About Kathy Lien 236 Articles

Kathy Lien is an Internationally Published Author and Chief Strategist of, one of the world’s most popular online websites for currency research. Her trading books include the highly acclaimed, Day Trading the Currency Market: Technical and Fundamental Strategies to Profit form Market Swings (2005, Wiley); High Probability Trading Setups for the Currency Market E-Book (2006, Investopedia); and Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Are Beating Wall Street at Its Own Game (2007, Wiley). As Chief Currency Strategist at FXCM, Kathy is responsible for providing research and analysis for DailyFX, the research arm of FXCM. She also co-edits the BK Forex Advisor, an Premium Service with Boris Schlossberg – one of the few investment advisory letters focusing strictly on the 2 Trillion/day FX market.

Kathy is also one of the authors of Investopedia’s Forex Education section and has written for, the Asia Times Online, Stocks & Commodities Magazine, MarketWatch, ActiveTrader Magazine, Currency Trader, Futures Magazine and SFO. She is frequently quoted by Bloomberg, Reuters, the Wall street Journal, and the International Herald Tribune and has appeared on CNN, CNBC, CBS and Bloomberg Radio. She has also hosted trader chats on EliteTrader, eSignal and FXStreet, sharing her expertise in both technical and fundamental analysis.

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