The Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast for 2007-2012, an index specifically developed as a model by Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) for the estimation of future global IP traffic growth, was released today.
Based on Cisco’s unique ability to gather and interpret IP network data as a result of its broad experience with customers and global reach, the index provided key findings on a variety of consumer and business Internet Protocol (IP) networking trends driven largely by the increasing use of video and Web 2.0 social networking and collaboration applications.
The combination of these technologies represents what is known as visual networking. Cisco Visual Networking Index Projects Global IP Traffic to Reach Over Half a Zettabyte(1) in Next Four Years. Sixfold Increase Between 2007 and 2012 due Mainly to Video, Social Networking.
Cisco VNI projections indicate that IP traffic will increase at a combined annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46 percent from 2007 to 2012, nearly doubling every two years. This will result in an annual bandwidth demand on the world’s IP networks of approximately 522 exabytes(2), or more than half a zettabyte.
In 2012, Internet video traffic alone will be 400 times the traffic carried by the U.S. Internet backbone in 2000. Representative of this trend, Internet video has jumped from 12 percent of the global consumer Internet traffic in 2006 to 22 percent in 2007. Video on demand, IPTV, peer-to-peer (P2P) video, and Internet video are forecast to account for nearly 90 percent of all consumer IP traffic in 2012.
- Global IP traffic will reach 44 exabytes per month in 2012, compared to less than seven per month in 2007.
- By comparison, global IP traffic in 2002 was five exabytes which means that the volume of IP traffic in 2012 will be 100 times as large.
- Mobile data traffic will roughly double each year from 2008 through 2012.
- Monthly global IP traffic in December 2012 will be 11 exabytes higher than in December 2011
Global business IP traffic is forecast to grow strongly at a CAGR of 35 percent from 2007 to 2012. Increased broadband penetration in the small-business segment and the increased adoption of advanced video communications (such as Cisco TelePresence) in the enterprise are major drivers for business IP traffic growth. Business IP traffic will grow fastest in the developing markets and Asia-Pacific. In volume, North America will continue to have the most business IP traffic through 2012, followed by Asia-Pacific and Western Europe.
The broad and increasing adoption of visual networking is having a significant impact on IP traffic growth for both consumer and business services markets worldwide.
